Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:17:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2820…2c63 sports 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$97 (-18%) realized −$96 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%10W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$51
14 days−$51
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$69
other 6% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-37.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -44.7% -50.0% 30% 30% -32.5%
≤30d 12 -53.9% -58.3% 25% 25% -41.2%
≤90d 16 -45.0% -50.2% 31% 31% -31.8%
all 24 -30.8% -37.4% 42% 42% -27.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.4% 42% -27.9%
10% -43.4% 38% -34.8%
15% -48.8% 38% -41.1%
20% -53.9% 29% -46.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$18 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$96
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses10 / 14
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage241d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 55¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 54¢ 52¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 +$23 +93%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -51%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $35 +$15 +44%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $30 +$20 +67%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: West Ham United FC (-1.5) May 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5 May 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5 May 10 $36 +$32 +90%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 −$10 -98%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score Apr 16 $10 +$4 +38%
Aston Villa FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 05 $10 +$7 +67%
Manchester City FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 22 $10 +$5 +52%
Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5 Feb 11 $26 +$5 +20%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 Jan 13 $43 −$43 -100%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Jan 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 3.5 Dec 28 $34 +$25 +72%
Liverpool vs. Manchester United: O/U 3.5 Oct 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $28 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $20 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $25 12h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $0 12h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 59¢ $30 24h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $30 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $20 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $35 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $30 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $10 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 6d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $10 18d
Spread: West Ham United FC (-1.5) BUY Leeds United FC 68¢ $20 24d
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $20 32d
Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $36 39d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 39d
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 72¢ $10 63d
Aston Villa FC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $10 104d
Manchester City FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 116d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $1 125d
Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $26 127d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-08? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 128d
Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $43 155d
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 157d
Liverpool FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $34 172d
Liverpool vs. Manchester United: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $4 241d
Liverpool vs. Manchester United: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $16 241d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.03 · official $47.03 (match) · 38 history records