Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:09:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

28 0x281f…3e7e other 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$271 (-8%) realized +$7 · open −$278

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip

Net edge-24%after slip

Net WR21%break-even

Win rate24%8W / 25L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$75per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Fees−$67est.

Kalshi-fit35%portable

Net worth$294now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$479

7 days−$280

14 days−$456

30 days−$456

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +21%

net ROI/market (all)-20.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	28	-35.2%	-41.4%	21%	18%	-25.4%
≤30d	33	-12.0%	-20.4%	24%	21%	-28.4%
≤90d	33	-12.0%	-20.4%	24%	21%	-28.4%
all	33	-12.0%	-20.4%	24%	21%	-28.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-20.4%	21%	-28.4%
10%	-28.0%	15%	-35.2%
15%	-35.0%	15%	-41.5%
20%	-41.3%	12%	-47.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 58% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

12% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -12% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +1% → late -25% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$76 vs −$43 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.57 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$294

Realized+$7

Unrealized−$278

Win rate (resolved)24%

Wins / losses8 / 25

Est. fees paid−$67

Open positions13

Markets (closed)33 / 46

History coverage10d

Avg bet$75

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 13 History 33 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	6¢	$91	$102	+$11 (+13%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	24¢	20¢	$111	$94	−$16 (-15%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	8¢	5¢	$47	$29	−$18 (-38%)
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$54	$20	−$34 (-63%)
Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$109	$11	−$98 (-90%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	1¢	$50	$10	−$40 (-80%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	2¢	$20	$8	−$12 (-59%)
Will Bukayo Saka be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$46	$8	−$38 (-82%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$10	$5	−$5 (-50%)
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$20	$1	−$19 (-93%)
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$10	$1	−$9 (-89%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$2	$1	−$1 (-50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$2	$1	−$1 (-50%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 19	$10	−$1	-6%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 19	$26	$0	-1%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5	Jun 19	$50	+$21	+41%
Spread: Canada (-5.5)	Jun 18	$123	−$120	-98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5	Jun 18	$204	−$200	-98%
Spread: Canada (-4.5)	Jun 18	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 18	$10	−$4	-44%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 18	$10	−$4	-37%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 18	$10	−$2	-22%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 18	$41	+$6	+14%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 18	$51	−$15	-30%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 18	$41	−$7	-16%
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 18	$21	−$12	-57%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 18	$103	−$17	-16%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 18	$103	+$15	+14%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 18	$135	−$39	-29%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5	Jun 16	$23	+$16	+67%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$51	−$50	-99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$12	$0	+0%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$10	−$2	-17%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5	Jun 15	$11	−$11	-98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5	Jun 15	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 14	$10	−$5	-53%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 12	$15	−$1	-6%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Jun 12	$51	−$50	-98%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Jun 12	$336	+$354	+105%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	Jun 11	$21	+$141	+685%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome?	Jun 10	$360	−$351	-98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 10	$790	−$7	-1%
Will Stephon Castle win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	Jun 09	$15	−$15	-97%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 09	$51	+$56	+109%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	24¢	$113	1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$10	1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$25	1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5	SELL Under	100¢	$71	2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5	BUY Under	70¢	$50	2h
Spread: Canada (-5.5)	BUY Qatar	25¢	$123	2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	40¢	$204	2h
Spread: Canada (-4.5)	BUY Qatar	24¢	$102	2h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$6	13h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	0¢	$6	13h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	0¢	$8	13h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	13¢	$47	13h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	8¢	$36	13h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$35	13h
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$9	13h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$86	13h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	12¢	$117	13h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$3	13h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	6¢	$94	2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$10	2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	6¢	$10	2d
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$53	2d
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$10	2d
Will Bukayo Saka be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$36	2d
Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$21	2d
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$49	2d
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$45	2d
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$21	2d
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$51	2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$41	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $293.66 · official $293.66 (match) · 92 history records