Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:50:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x281a…ab23 world 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate42%18W / 25L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% $0
other 20% +$1
politics 10% $0
sports 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +2.3% -7.5% 25% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 17 +0.7% -8.9% 18% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 17 +0.7% -8.9% 18% 0% -9.6%
all 43 -0.2% -9.7% 42% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses18 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage471d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 81¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 23 $5 $0 +9%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $21 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $93 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $4 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $80 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $109 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 31 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $58 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $2 $0 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $42 −$1 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 28 $45 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $45 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +4%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Dec 14 $5 $0 -6%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? Jun 09 $8 $0 +1%
MicroStrategy purchases >10000 BTC June 3-9? Jun 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $2 $0 +2%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? Apr 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Apr 17 $4 $0 +5%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top Champions League scorer? Apr 15 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Colombia in the first 100 days? Apr 14 $1 $0 -40%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? Apr 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 11 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in his first 100 days? Apr 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will Marcel Ciolacu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runo Apr 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 09 $16 $0 -0%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? Apr 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will Jay-Z settle with his accuser before April? Apr 03 $16 $0 +2%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 28? Mar 30 $16 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 28? Mar 24 $15 $0 +1%
Will George Russell win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $15 +$1 +7%
Will 'Alto Knights' gross less than 5-7m on opening weekend? Mar 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $14 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 10 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $44 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $40 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $34 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $6 9h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 14h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 14h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $14 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $14 20h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $21 35h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $16 38h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $5 38h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $44 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $44 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $19 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $19 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $40 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $39 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $1 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $37 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 18d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $15 19d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $8 19d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $18 19d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 19d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $21 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $11 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $11 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.00 · official $44.28 (match) · 137 history records