Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:35:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2817…4543 crypto 428 markets active 12h ago coverage 359d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$413 (-33%) realized −$410 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%154W / 271L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$12
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$216
sports 37% −$132
other 7% −$33
world 2% −$24
culture 0% −$5
tech 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -9.9% -18.5% 64% 64% -18.0%
≤30d 114 -8.5% -17.2% 68% 68% -19.3%
≤90d 411 -24.8% -32.0% 37% 36% -38.6%
all 425 -25.2% -32.3% 36% 35% -39.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.3% 35% -39.7%
10% -38.8% 35% -45.5%
15% -44.7% 22% -50.8%
20% -50.2% 16% -55.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

359d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$410
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses154 / 271
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)425 / 428
History coverage359d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 425 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions Samsung Lions 79¢ 59¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-26%)
Will Club The Strongest vs. Club Bolívar end in a draw? No 80¢ 46¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-43%)
ITF Sapporo: Mana Kawamura vs Natsuho Arakawa Mana Kawamura 70¢ 18¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dublin: Ivan Ivanov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 16 $2 +$1 +42%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 15 $2 +$1 +42%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 14 $2 +$1 +42%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Sean Cuenin vs Branko Djuric Jun 13 $2 +$1 +42%
Will Pau win? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
ITF Monastir: Marcus Walters vs Dominick Mosejczuk Jun 13 $2 +$1 +42%
ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Dinko Dinev Jun 13 $2 +$1 +42%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $2 +$1 +42%
ITF Kayseri: Julia Adams vs Ui Su Jeong Jun 12 $2 +$1 +42%
ITF Decatur: Sahaja Yamalapalli vs Dasha Plekhanova Jun 11 $2 +$1 +42%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $2 +$1 +42%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $2 +$1 +42%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Khrystyna Vozniak vs Isabella Shinikova Jun 11 $2 +$1 +42%
Ilkley: Luca Nardi vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 10 $3 +$1 +42%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $2 +$1 +42%
ITF Curtea de Arges: Radu David Turcanu vs Anas Mazdrashki Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Modena: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Xiaodi You Jun 09 $2 +$1 +24%
ITF Tokyo: Renta Tokuda vs Shu Matsuoka Jun 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 09 $2 +$1 +24%
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Han Shi Jun 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Ilkley: Elvina Kalieva vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 09 $2 +$1 +24%
Lyon: Hugo Grenier vs Luca Van Assche Jun 08 $3 +$1 +24%
Will Croatia vs. Slovenia end in a draw? Jun 07 $3 +$1 +24%
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Jun 07 $2 −$2 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Aoi Ito Jun 07 $2 +$1 +24%
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 07 $3 +$1 +24%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Hanfmann/Struff vs Doumbia/Gonzalez Jun 07 $3 −$3 -99%
Libema Open, Qualification: Martin Damm vs Juan Pablo Ficovich Jun 07 $2 +$1 +24%
Will Bolivia vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 07 $3 +$1 +24%
Will United States vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 06 $3 +$1 +24%
ITF Caltanissetta: Massimo Giunta vs Alexandre Reco Jun 06 $2 +$1 +24%
ITF Harmon: Jake Delaney vs Tai Leonard Sach Jun 05 $3 −$3 -99%
Olimpia Milano vs. Pallacanestro Brescia Jun 05 $3 +$1 +24%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $3 +$1 +24%
ITF Ljubljana: Jan Kupcic vs Alexander Weis Jun 04 $3 −$3 -99%
ITF Cuiaba: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Enzo Kohlmann de Freitas Jun 04 $2 +$1 +24%
ITF Caltanissetta: Juan Cruz Martin Manzano vs Adam Lynch Jun 04 $3 +$1 +24%
Will Slovenia vs. Cyprus end in a draw? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -99%
Prostejov: Alex Molcan vs Milos Karol Jun 04 $3 +$1 +24%
Perugia: Pierluigi Basile vs Francesco Forti Jun 04 $3 +$1 +24%
ITF Kayseri: Ksenia Smirnova vs Mariia Bergen Jun 04 $3 +$1 +24%
Birmingham: Coleman Wong vs Filippo Romano Jun 04 $4 −$3 -99%
ITF Osijek: Dora Miskovic vs Isabelle Cherny Jun 04 $3 +$1 +24%
Olimpia Milano vs. Pallacanestro Brescia Jun 03 $3 +$1 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Sapporo: Mana Kawamura vs Natsuho Arakawa BUY Mana Kawamura 70¢ $2 11h
Dublin: Ivan Ivanov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Stefanos Sakellaridis 70¢ $2 32h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Joao Fonseca 70¢ $2 32h
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas BUY Fenerbahce 70¢ $2 2d
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 70¢ $2 2d
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Paris Basketball 70¢ $2 3d
Will Pau win? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 3d
ITF Monastir: Marcus Walters vs Dominick Mosejczuk BUY Dominick Mosejczuk 70¢ $2 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 70¢ $2 3d
ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Dinko Dinev BUY Ivan Marrero Curbelo 70¢ $2 4d
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Sean Cuenin vs Branko Djuric BUY Sean Cuenin 70¢ $2 4d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $2 4d
ITF Kayseri: Julia Adams vs Ui Su Jeong BUY Julia Adams 70¢ $2 5d
ITF Decatur: Sahaja Yamalapalli vs Dasha Plekhanova BUY Sahaja Yamalapalli 70¢ $2 5d
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher BUY Julia Grabher 69¢ $2 5d
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 70¢ $2 5d
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris BUY Billy Harris 70¢ $2 5d
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 70¢ $2 6d
ITF Ceska Lipa: Khrystyna Vozniak vs Isabella Shinikova BUY Isabella Shinikova 70¢ $2 6d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 70¢ $2 6d
ITF Curtea de Arges: Radu David Turcanu vs Anas Mazdrashki BUY Radu David Turcanu 70¢ $2 6d
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel BUY Hanne Vandewinkel 70¢ $2 7d
Ilkley: Luca Nardi vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 70¢ $3 7d
ITF Tokyo: Renta Tokuda vs Shu Matsuoka BUY Renta Tokuda 70¢ $3 7d
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Han Shi BUY Han Shi 70¢ $3 7d
Modena: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Xiaodi You BUY Leyre Romero Gormaz 80¢ $2 8d
Ilkley: Elvina Kalieva vs Ashlyn Krueger BUY Ashlyn Krueger 80¢ $2 8d
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Rinky Hijikata 80¢ $2 8d
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 80¢ $2 9d
Will Croatia vs. Slovenia end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $3 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.33 · official $4.41 (match) · 1152 history records