Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:41:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2817…a2dc world 29 markets active 23h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate38%11W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$8
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% −$9
other 5% +$3
politics 4% −$1
sports 4% +$1
tech 2% +$1
crypto 2% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -17.5% -25.4% 0% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 14 -7.3% -16.1% 14% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 14 -7.3% -16.1% 14% 0% -10.4%
all 29 -1.9% -11.2% 38% 7% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 7% -9.8%
10% -19.7% 3% -18.5%
15% -27.5% 3% -26.3%
20% -34.6% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses11 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage464d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $114 −$4 -4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $105 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $31 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $78 −$3 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $54 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $33 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $40 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $45 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $43 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $85 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $2 $0 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $82 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $19 $0 +1%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Jun 24 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? May 07 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Kentucky win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 30 $14 +$2 +13%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 27 $14 $0 -1%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 24 $28 $0 -0%
Will Trump's approval rating be 48.5% or moreon March 28? Mar 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -36%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 16 $13 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on March 13? Mar 12 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $4 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 11 $1 +$1 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $2 22h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $3 22h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes $2 23h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes $2 23h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 22¢ $7 28h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 22¢ $7 30h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 83¢ $32 38h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $36 40h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $37 45h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $34 47h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $34 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $34 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $11 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $20 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $31 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $34 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $36 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $36 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $38 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $39 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 34¢ $39 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $34 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $35 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 38¢ $15 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 39¢ $7 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 38¢ $8 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 39¢ $32 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 40¢ $26 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 40¢ $7 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $33 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.95 · official $0.00 (match) · 96 history records