Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:42:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
28 0x2816…c811 sports 102 markets active 0h ago coverage 488d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,550 (+4%) realized +$1,599 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate34%32W / 62L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$348per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$224est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$2,651now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,425
7 days+$2,225
14 days+$3,716
30 days+$4,407
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$1,687
other 26% +$2,952
world 1% −$10
crypto 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +65.5% +49.7% 50% 50% +46.2%
≤30d 56 +21.5% +10.0% 30% 21% +17.8%
≤90d 56 +21.5% +10.0% 30% 21% +17.8%
all 94 +5.1% -4.9% 34% 29% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 29% -5.9%
10% -14.0% 29% -14.9%
15% -22.3% 29% -23.2%
20% -29.9% 26% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$511 vs −$243 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

488d coverage
Net worth$2,651
Realized+$1,599
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses32 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$224
Open positions8
Markets (closed)94 / 102
History coverage488d
Avg bet$348
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $700 $688 −$12 (-2%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $600 $605 +$5 (+1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $500 $490 −$10 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $400 $381 −$19 (-5%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-1%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 26 $204 +$101 +50%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $773 +$1,024 +132%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $511 −$160 -31%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 25 $308 −$300 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $624 +$2,760 +442%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $1,227 −$1,200 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 −$8 -8%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 15 $205 −$32 -16%
Will Son Heung-min score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $134 +$8 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 15 $101 +$6 +6%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 15 $205 −$19 -9%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $205 −$9 -5%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $102 −$15 -14%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $103 −$8 -8%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $103 −$12 -12%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 −$8 -8%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 15 $102 +$6 +6%
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 15 $145 −$2 -1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $101 −$3 -4%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 −$5 -5%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $103 −$14 -14%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $31 −$5 -15%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $201 −$3 -1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 15 $203 −$10 -5%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $204 −$12 -6%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $304 −$58 -19%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $304 −$12 -4%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 15 $306 −$16 -5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $602 −$8 -1%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $306 −$266 -87%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $306 −$131 -43%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $301 +$13 +4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$7 -7%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$1 +1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $418 −$18 -4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $652 −$88 -14%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $307 +$1,330 +433%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$90 +45%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $230 −$225 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $307 +$779 +254%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $409 −$400 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $409 −$114 -28%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $408 −$400 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $103 +$611 +596%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $205 −$200 -98%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 13 $247 −$44 -18%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $202 +$130 +64%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $61 +$161 +262%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $307 +$508 +166%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 15m
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 18m
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 19m
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 54¢ $305 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $264 4h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 40¢ $102 4h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $351 5h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 31¢ $102 5h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $204 6h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $205 6h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $308 6h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 25¢ $511 6h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $509 6h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $510 6h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $511 19h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $509 19h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 18¢ $112 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $409 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $511 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,651.45 · official $2,651.45 (match) · 307 history records