Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:03:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

28
0x2814…5596
world · 154 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$7,528 -45%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6,988 · open −$655
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,099
Realized−$6,988
Unrealized−$655
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses20 / 135
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions36
Markets (closed)155 / 154
History coverage73d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 36 History 155 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$114
7 days−$80
14 days−$452
30 days−$278
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $458 $374 −$85 (-18%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $250 $208 −$42 (-17%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 82¢ 88¢ $165 $176 +$11 (+7%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $250 $156 −$94 (-37%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes 41¢ 26¢ $250 $154 −$96 (-38%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 56¢ 24¢ $350 $147 −$203 (-58%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 46¢ 47¢ $121 $124 +$3 (+2%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 50¢ 36¢ $132 $95 −$37 (-28%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 51¢ 83¢ $58 $94 +$36 (+62%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $100 $64 −$36 (-36%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 56¢ 60¢ $56 $60 +$4 (+8%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 32¢ 18¢ $100 $58 −$42 (-42%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 22¢ 12¢ $100 $57 −$43 (-43%)
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? No 48¢ 56¢ $38 $45 +$6 (+16%)
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 in June? No 49¢ 86¢ $24 $43 +$18 (+74%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes 62¢ 77¢ $25 $31 +$6 (+24%)
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? No 67¢ 78¢ $21 $25 +$4 (+17%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $100 $16 −$84 (-84%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-4%)
Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? No 48¢ 50¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 49¢ 78¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+59%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? No 47¢ 46¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? No 46¢ 68¢ $9 $14 +$4 (+47%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Feyenoord win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Celtic win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Sturm Graz win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Fenerbahce win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Nice win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Basel win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Rangers win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $81 −$24 -29%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 12 $139 −$16 -12%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 12 $124 −$15 -12%
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $20 −$4 -18%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 12 $64 −$12 -19%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $70 −$37 -53%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $16 −$3 -19%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $3 −$1 -22%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? Jun 09 $22 +$21 +92%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $11 −$6 -48%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in May? Jun 07 $25 −$6 -22%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 06 $36 +$28 +79%
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $11 −$3 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 61% −$3,679
finance 24% −$2,968
sports 5% −$625
other 5% +$10
politics 3% −$186
crypto 2% −$149
weather 1% −$32
tech 0% −$4
economics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $20 48m
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $165 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 49¢ $98 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 42¢ $84 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $100 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 45¢ $90 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $11 4h
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $17 5h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 39¢ $25 5h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 7h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 7h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 7h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 7h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 7h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $92 8h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $7 8h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $29 8h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $28 8h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $29 8h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL No 38¢ $24 18h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 38¢ $25 18h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $7 19h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $33 19h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $23 19h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 41¢ $13 22h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? SELL No 87¢ $43 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $6 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-50.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -71.1% -73.9% 6% 6% -20.6%
≤30d 121 -44.5% -49.8% 9% 8% -23.6%
≤90d 155 -45.2% -50.4% 13% 12% -69.3%
all 155 -45.2% -50.4% 13% 12% -69.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.4% 12% -69.3%
10% -55.2% 10% -72.2%
15% -59.5% 9% -74.9%
20% -63.5% 8% -77.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,099.29 · official $2,099.31 (match) · 440 history records