Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:27:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
28 0x2814…b0cc sports 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$245 (+20%) realized +$276 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate59%20W / 14L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day18.1pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$204
other 14% −$44
crypto 1% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +11.0% +0.4% 59% 56% +5.0%
≤30d 34 +11.0% +0.4% 59% 56% +5.0%
≤90d 34 +11.0% +0.4% 59% 56% +5.0%
all 34 +11.0% +0.4% 59% 56% +5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.4% 56% +5.0%
10% -9.2% 53% -5.1%
15% -18.0% 50% -14.3%
20% -26.0% 35% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +66% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$21 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$276
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses20 / 14
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions3
Markets (closed)34 / 37
History coverage3d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day18.1
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-1.5) Croatia 68¢ 68¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 63¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $30 +$15 +48%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $35 +$17 +48%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 17 $25 +$31 +124%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $30 +$18 +59%
Norway to win the second half? Jun 17 $25 +$9 +38%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$22 +43%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $61 +$22 +37%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $20 +$44 +216%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$33 +109%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $36 +$44 +124%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$42 +82%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $30 +$20 +65%
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Jun 16 $20 +$11 +52%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $20 +$26 +129%
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 16 $20 −$1 -3%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $30 +$25 +83%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu Jun 16 $56 −$12 -22%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $20 +$43 +213%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $51 +$2 +4%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $61 +$32 +53%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire Jun 16 $50 +$7 +14%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Andres Santamarta Jun 16 $50 +$12 +24%
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro Jun 16 $31 −$20 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 68¢ $35 5m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 6m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $25 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 63¢ $30 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 67¢ $30 7h
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 67¢ $35 7h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Anastasiia Sobolieva 44¢ $25 7h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $48 13h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $30 15h
Norway to win the second half? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $58 19h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $59 19h
Norway to win the second half? BUY Yes 72¢ $25 20h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $35 22h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $35 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 40¢ $14 22h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Iraq 41¢ $24 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $15 22h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 42¢ $25 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $64 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 22h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 96¢ $80 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $92 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $20 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 24h
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You BUY Xiaodi You 62¢ $15 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.88 · official $63.88 (match) · 80 history records