Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:16:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2813…d14b world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% $0
other 8% $0
politics 8% +$1
weather 2% −$4
culture 1% $0
sports 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.4% -9.9% 20% 20% -9.6%
≤30d 12 +0.3% -9.3% 25% 8% -9.4%
≤90d 12 +0.3% -9.3% 25% 8% -9.4%
all 32 -0.5% -10.0% 44% 6% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 6% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 3% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage465d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 21 $29 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $2 $0 -15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $41 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $2 $0 +13%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $46 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $2 $0 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $19 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $46 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $33 −$1 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 25 $41 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $42 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $45 +$2 +4%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 29 $7 $0 +4%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $0 $0 -13%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%? Jun 03 $2 $0 +4%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 11 $4 $0 -2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 06 $7 $0 -1%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? May 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 06 $4 +$1 +30%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? Apr 27 $2 $0 -16%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? Apr 25 $6 $0 -1%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 44.0% on April 25? Apr 24 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Bloc Québécois win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canad Apr 24 $6 $0 +1%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 18 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 18? Mar 18 $12 −$4 -30%
Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 14-21? Mar 16 $11 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $45 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 29h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $22 29h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $7 29h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 40h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 42h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $41 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $35 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $18 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $27 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $46 4d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 27d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 27d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $4 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $14 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $19 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 76¢ $45 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 77¢ $46 27d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $32 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $7 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $26 28d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $41 28d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $41 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $10 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.80 · official $44.80 (match) · 81 history records