Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:53:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2810…1131 crypto 352 markets active 2h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$912 (-3%) realized −$397 · open −$515
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate45%156W / 189L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$532now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$59
14 days+$59
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$390
other 29% −$509
tech 2% +$7
world 2% −$19
politics 2% −$28
sports 1% +$39
economics 0% −$45
finance 0% +$44
weather 0% −$9
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-34.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +23.8% +12.0% 57% 57% +13.7%
≤30d 18 -40.3% -46.0% 28% 28% -23.1%
≤90d 41 -35.3% -41.4% 32% 27% -15.7%
all 345 -27.1% -34.1% 45% 27% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.1% 27% -11.0%
10% -40.4% 20% -19.5%
15% -46.2% 17% -27.3%
20% -51.4% 12% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -22% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$12 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$532
Realized−$397
Unrealized−$515
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses156 / 189
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)345 / 352
History coverage536d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 345 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 37¢ 23¢ $298 $184 −$115 (-38%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 82¢ 40¢ $327 $161 −$166 (-51%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 50¢ 24¢ $182 $86 −$97 (-53%)
Will Nansen launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 22¢ 8¢ $220 $83 −$136 (-62%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Norway vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $34 +$6 +19%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $34 −$34 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Neither team to score first? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $12 +$38 +325%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $59 +$41 +70%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $66 +$34 +52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 01 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? May 30 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Citrea FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Citrea FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 26 $12 +$13 +108%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22? May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19? May 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 18? May 18 $5 −$3 -49%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 11-17? May 17 $11 −$7 -63%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 16? May 16 $97 +$175 +179%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 11-17? May 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? May 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15? May 15 $39 +$43 +112%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 14? May 13 $49 +$4 +8%
Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 03 $90 −$2 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April? Apr 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 22 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 22 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $33 −$18 -55%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 11? Apr 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 April 6-12? Apr 10 $43 +$5 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 6-12? Apr 09 $7 +$1 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 6-12? Apr 09 $20 +$4 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $95 −$46 -49%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 7? Apr 06 $44 +$4 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 06 $85 +$44 +52%
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? Apr 01 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Solana dip to $60 in March? Apr 01 $36 −$36 -100%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 25 $42 −$42 -100%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? Mar 24 $150 $0 +0%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 21 $18 +$7 +39%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 21? Mar 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 6? Mar 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 6? Mar 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $40 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 15h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $34 15h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 37h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $17 37h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 37h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $34 37h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $66 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $532.08 · official $532.08 (match) · 1091 history records