Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:46:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
28 0x280e…b409 sports 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$54 (+4%) realized +$189 · open −$135
Gross ROI / mkt +49% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip
Net edge+35%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%12W / 58L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days+$88
14 days+$28
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$65
other 41% −$154
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+34.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +72.0% +55.6% 17% 17% -2.2%
≤30d 56 +65.9% +50.1% 16% 16% -10.6%
≤90d 56 +65.9% +50.1% 16% 16% -10.6%
all 70 +48.8% +34.7% 17% 17% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +34.7% 17% -8.5%
10% +21.8% 17% -17.2%
15% +10.0% 17% -25.2%
20% -0.8% 17% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +49% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +86% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$12 · ×5.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized+$189
Unrealized−$135
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses12 / 58
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions9
Markets (closed)70 / 79
History coverage154d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 75¢ 100¢ $30 $40 +$10 (+33%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 38¢ $20 $37 +$17 (+83%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12 $10 −$2 (-13%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11 $10 −$1 (-7%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes $101 $1 −$100 (-99%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 Under $10 $0 −$10 (-95%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 18¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $10 −$4 -37%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $22 −$21 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $36 −$35 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 17 $16 −$16 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 +$71 +982%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $6 −$2 -33%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 +$74 +344%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $22 −$21 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $68 −$34 -50%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 +$135 +1636%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $62 −$60 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 +$110 +5337%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 +$27 +874%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $31 −$25 -81%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10 −$7 -70%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 14 $11 −$11 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$91 +442%
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$67 +650%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $32 −$31 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $10 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $31 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $62 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 2h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $11 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $1 2h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 5h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 5h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $22 5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $30 6h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 7h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $36 8h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $6 22h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 25h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 11¢ $15 25h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $2 27h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 27h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia $5 27h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 12¢ $4 29h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 29h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes $7 29h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 2d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia $11 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $6 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.84 · official $158.85 (match) · 115 history records