Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:51:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
28 0x280e…9609 sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$43 (+6%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate56%10W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$44
14 days+$44
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% +$3
sports 32% −$9
crypto 21% +$48
other 12% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +39.7% +26.4% 100% 50% +22.4%
≤30d 10 +0.8% -8.8% 70% 40% -1.9%
≤90d 17 -6.3% -15.2% 59% 35% -3.4%
all 18 -11.5% -20.0% 56% 33% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 33% -3.7%
10% -27.6% 33% -12.9%
15% -34.6% 33% -21.4%
20% -41.0% 22% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$13 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses10 / 8
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage138d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 17 $70 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5 Jun 17 $56 +$44 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 29 $49 −$48 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 29 $41 +$39 +93%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 29 $56 +$44 +79%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $42 −$41 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 28 $26 +$14 +55%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 28 $110 +$1 +1%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 19 $130 +$1 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 12 $6 $0 -0%
Valorant: JD Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Ranking Matches Apr 17 $8 −$8 -98%
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 17 $3 $0 +2%
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Mar 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Knicks Mar 31 $3 +$1 +39%
Gov Shutdown Odds >90% Friday Night (12-1 AM)? Mar 31 $3 +$1 +45%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode Jan 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $80 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $70 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29? BUY Down 15¢ $5 19d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5 BUY Over 55¢ $56 19d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 BUY Under 48¢ $49 19d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Spurs 55¢ $56 19d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 41¢ $42 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $40 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 19d
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 99¢ $110 29d
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? BUY No 100¢ $130 34d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $2 36d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 89¢ $6 36d
Valorant: JD Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Ranking Matches BUY JD Gaming 32¢ $8 60d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $2 77d
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $3 77d
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 98¢ $3 77d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 89¢ $6 127d
Trail Blazers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 72¢ $3 137d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode BUY Power Rangers 93¢ $2 137d
Gov Shutdown Odds >90% Friday Night (12-1 AM)? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 137d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.96 · official $79.96 (match) · 34 history records