Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:42:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2809…1652 weather 162 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$74 (+2%) realized +$73 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate27%43W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day68.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days+$64
14 days+$177
30 days+$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% +$111
other 1% −$54
sports 1% +$15
crypto 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -10.8% -19.3% 29% 19% -6.7%
≤30d 159 -7.9% -16.7% 27% 19% -7.1%
≤90d 159 -7.9% -16.7% 27% 19% -7.1%
all 159 -7.9% -16.7% 27% 19% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 19% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 16% -16.0%
15% -31.9% 15% -24.1%
20% -38.6% 14% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$5 · ×3.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$73
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses43 / 116
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)159 / 162
History coverage19d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day68.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 28? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $31 $33 +$2 (+5%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 54¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 28? Yes 18¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 98 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 28? Jun 28 $218 +$43 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C or below on June 28? Jun 28 $163 +$80 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 28? Jun 28 $201 +$21 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or below on June 27? Jun 27 $10 +$14 +139%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P Jun 27 $35 −$34 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 27? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 26? Jun 27 $6 +$2 +31%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 27? Jun 27 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 27? Jun 27 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 27? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $5 +$15 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 26 $9 −$2 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 26? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 26? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 26? Jun 26 $9 −$9 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or below on June 25? Jun 26 $5 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 25? Jun 25 $7 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 25? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 26? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 26? Jun 25 $19 −$18 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 24? Jun 25 $16 +$78 +478%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 24? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 24? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 24? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 24? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 24? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 25 $156 −$2 -1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 24 $37 −$34 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25? Jun 24 $23 −$22 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 24 $2 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 24? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 23? Jun 24 $490 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 23? Jun 24 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 23? Jun 23 $4 −$3 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 25? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 25? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 23 $1 +$14 +988%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 23 $60 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 22 $30 −$29 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 22? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 22? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $13 +$87 +663%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on June 22? Jun 22 $423 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 22 $5 +$5 +99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 28? BUY Yes 95¢ $31 58m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 28? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 28? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 28? SELL Yes 89¢ $173 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C or below on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $243 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 28? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 28? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C or below on June 28? BUY No 68¢ $30 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C or below on June 28? BUY No 61¢ $51 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 28? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 28? SELL No 71¢ $88 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $222 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C or below on June 28? BUY No 72¢ $30 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 28? BUY No 79¢ $101 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C or below on June 28? BUY No 67¢ $51 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 28? BUY No 90¢ $101 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 28? BUY No 89¢ $101 4h
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P BUY Yes 8¢ $10 21h
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P BUY Yes 6¢ $4 21h
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P BUY Yes 12¢ $10 21h
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand P BUY Yes 11¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.58 · official $33.58 (match) · 1378 history records