Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:21:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
28 0x2809…a3aa crypto 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 632d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate93%110W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% +$21
politics 30% −$8
other 0% −$9
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% +$3
world 0% +$4
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 6 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 27 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 118 +0.6% -9.0% 93% 18% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 18% -9.5%
10% -17.7% 8% -18.1%
15% -25.6% 5% -26.0%
20% -32.9% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

632d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses110 / 8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)118 / 122
History coverage632d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 21? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? No 97¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 17 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on June 9? Jun 11 $103 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 07 $3 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 18? May 29 $189 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9? May 16 $192 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in April? May 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in April? May 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 02 $4 $0 +3%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $150 end of April? May 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 02 $6 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? May 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 27? May 02 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 23? Apr 26 $161 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on April 16? Apr 22 $167 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 13? Apr 15 $174 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $172 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 8? Apr 10 $165 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 2? Apr 05 $196 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of March? Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 31? Apr 02 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 28? Mar 29 $178 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $179 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 24? Mar 25 $179 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $190 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 20? Mar 21 $195 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $193 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $191 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on March 10? Mar 14 $191 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 8? Mar 09 $186 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 4? Mar 05 $190 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 1? Mar 03 $188 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 27? Mar 01 $192 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 26? Feb 27 $190 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 23? Feb 24 $191 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in 2025 be between 1.5% and 2.0%? Feb 21 $2 $0 +16%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 20? Feb 21 $184 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 17? Feb 19 $189 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 15? Feb 16 $189 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 1 Feb 14 $185 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on February 11? Feb 12 $189 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on February 8 Feb 09 $185 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 6? Feb 07 $184 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on February 3? Feb 05 $182 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in January? Feb 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? Feb 01 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,300 on February 1? Feb 01 $175 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $100,000 on January 30? Jan 31 $182 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $99 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $7 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $2 2d
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in June? BUY No 99¢ $2 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $108 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $103 12d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $189 34d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? BUY No 97¢ $3 41d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $192 42d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $160 53d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $161 58d
Will XRP reach $2.20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 58d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 99¢ $6 58d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $167 65d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $174 68d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $172 70d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $165 73d
Will Solana reach $160 in April? BUY No 100¢ $3 74d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $4 74d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $7 74d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 97¢ $4 74d
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $150 end of April? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 74d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $196 78d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $180 81d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 28? BUY No 100¢ $178 84d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $179 86d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $179 88d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $5 89d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.01 · official $108.01 (match) · 252 history records