Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:43:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2809…c89b crypto 1658 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 89d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$147 (-7%) realized −$147 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate76%1264W / 393L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day24.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$4
14 days+$15
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$32
sports 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 214 +0.5% -9.1% 70% 66% -8.2%
≤30d 396 +2.2% -7.5% 68% 66% -6.7%
≤90d 1657 -2.0% -11.3% 76% 43% -11.1%
all 1657 -2.0% -11.3% 76% 43% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 43% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 26% -19.6%
15% -27.5% 19% -27.4%
20% -34.6% 14% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$147
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses1264 / 393
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1657 / 1658
History coverage90d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day24.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1657 Trades
no open positions (137 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records