Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:04:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2801…9dfe world 61 markets active 12h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$26 (-4%) realized −$4 · open −$22
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate44%11W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$375now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$42
14 days−$42
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$8
economics 29% −$3
politics 29% −$16
tech 3% −$1
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -39.3% -45.0% 21% 14% -40.7%
≤30d 25 +3.0% -6.8% 44% 20% -11.7%
≤90d 25 +3.0% -6.8% 44% 20% -11.7%
all 25 +3.0% -6.8% 44% 20% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 20% -11.7%
10% -15.7% 16% -20.1%
15% -23.9% 4% -27.8%
20% -31.3% 4% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +52% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$375
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses11 / 14
Open positions36
Markets (closed)25 / 61
History coverage22d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 100¢ $117 $118 +$1 (+1%)
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? No 96¢ 97¢ $55 $56 +$0 (+1%)
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No 92¢ 86¢ $38 $36 −$3 (-7%)
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? No 79¢ 78¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 66¢ 69¢ $15 $15 +$1 (+4%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 92¢ 96¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 100¢ $1 $10 +$9 (+1148%)
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 29¢ 99¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+242%)
Will Otzma Yehudit win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 95¢ 98¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%? No 80¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+25%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 80¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+24%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 94¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will voter turnout be 51-54% in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 100¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30? No 98¢ 96¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-12%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? No 64¢ 85¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+32%)
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PSD + PNL + AUR? No 100¢ 99¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 97¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PNL + AUR? No 100¢ 98¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? No 98¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Peru General Election invalidated by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? Jun 16 $26 −$15 -58%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -60%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro advance to the seco Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 C Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? Jun 16 $9 −$3 -31%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $7 +$2 +24%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $38 −$6 -15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $4 $0 -1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 -7%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $6 −$1 -18%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +13%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will Hezbollah win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary e Jun 09 $12 $0 -1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $3 $0 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $5 $0 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $2 $0 +6%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 01 $5 $0 +10%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 01 $10 −$6 -65%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $43 +$14 +33%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will The Democrats win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative May 26 $7 $0 -3%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 26 $2 +$15 +606%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? May 26 $43 +$13 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian pres SELL No 99¢ $5 12h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian pres SELL No 99¢ $5 16h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian pres SELL No 99¢ $5 18h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian pres SELL No 99¢ $5 3d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? SELL Yes $0 3d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? BUY Yes $11 3d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY No 80¢ $7 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 40¢ $3 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 82¢ $4 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 82¢ $4 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 5d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $2 6d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes $0 6d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes $0 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 6d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes $0 6d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes $0 6d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes $0 6d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes $0 6d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $9 6d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes $0 6d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes $0 6d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes $0 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $3 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 53¢ $3 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $3 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? SELL No 85¢ $4 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 80¢ $4 6d
Will Hezbollah win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary e SELL No 98¢ $12 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $375.09 · official $375.08 (match) · 166 history records