Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:09:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27ff…d0df sports 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$186 (-8%) realized −$209 · open +$23
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%35W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days+$41
14 days+$15
30 days+$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$164
other 15% +$114
crypto 4% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +1.4% -8.3% 47% 44% -6.8%
≤30d 45 +16.8% +5.7% 51% 47% -4.6%
≤90d 81 -2.8% -12.1% 43% 41% -16.3%
all 81 -2.8% -12.1% 43% 41% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 41% -16.3%
10% -20.5% 40% -24.3%
15% -28.2% 40% -31.6%
20% -35.2% 37% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$23 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$209
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses35 / 46
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 82
History coverage60d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 46¢ $50 $73 +$23 (+47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 +$39 +76%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $1 $0 -16%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $3 −$3 -91%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 +$11 +105%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$53 +105%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 $0 +9%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$33 +66%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$56 +109%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $51 −$30 -59%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $32 −$24 -75%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$24 +119%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 −$8 -74%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $51 +$40 +79%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$12 -25%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $51 +$44 +86%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 +$29 +57%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 +$40 +79%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 +$71 +140%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$30 -29%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $20 −$4 -19%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$53 +105%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$32 -63%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $51 +$33 +65%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $51 +$71 +140%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $48 −$47 -98%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 31 $1 +$6 +596%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $20 +$14 +67%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $1 +$1 +123%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $20 +$19 +93%
West Ham United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 24 $1 −$1 -82%
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 1 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) May 23 $20 +$19 +93%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners May 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 18 $51 −$46 -91%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) May 18 $20 +$18 +90%
Newcastle United FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners May 17 $20 +$12 +60%
Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 5.5 May 17 $20 −$10 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No $1 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No $1 2h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 56¢ $51 4h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Bosnia and Herzegovina $0 5h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 55¢ $3 5h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $51 5h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 7h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $10 22h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 28h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 29h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 30h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 33h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 11¢ $3 44h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $51 46h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 SELL Over 22¢ $21 47h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 15¢ $8 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 56¢ $6 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 56¢ $6 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 58¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 2d
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 10¢ $3 2d
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $10 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 39¢ $38 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.39 · official $73.39 (match) · 150 history records