Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:30:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27fd…c9c6 other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate48%13W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$1
world 31% $0
politics 8% $0
culture 4% $0
tech 4% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -8.2% -17.0% 0% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 5 -3.8% -13.0% 20% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 5 -3.8% -13.0% 20% 0% -10.4%
all 27 -0.2% -9.7% 48% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses13 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage459d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 93¢ 94¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $3 $0 -16%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $32 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $35 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $33 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? Dec 23 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 26 $8 $0 +2%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 21 $6 $0 +1%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? May 17 $2 $0 +8%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Pacers beat the Cavaliers 4-1? May 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will Alexander Isak be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? May 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 08 $6 $0 +1%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 07 $6 $0 -0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 06 $5 $0 -1%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 03 $11 $0 -1%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 30 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Apr 28 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $26 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $7 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $26 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $32 5d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $6 27d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 91¢ $30 27d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 91¢ $35 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $32 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $8 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $21 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $12 28d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 29d
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? SELL No 100¢ $4 181d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? SELL No 98¢ $8 361d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 96¢ $8 396d
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? SELL No 96¢ $6 397d
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? BUY No 95¢ $6 401d
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 97¢ $6 401d
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 97¢ $6 402d
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 SELL No 96¢ $6 403d
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 BUY No 96¢ $6 403d
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 97¢ $6 403d
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 97¢ $6 403d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 99¢ $6 404d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 99¢ $6 407d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.18 · official $26.18 (match) · 72 history records