Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:52:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27fb…8e05 other 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$36 (+1%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate34%30W / 58L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$5
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% +$5
other 26% +$28
world 16% +$4
sports 13% $0
economics 10% $0
tech 1% −$3
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.0% -10.4% 33% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 14 -0.8% -10.3% 21% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 25 -1.4% -10.8% 24% 4% -9.5%
all 88 +2.1% -7.6% 34% 5% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 5% -8.9%
10% -16.5% 1% -17.6%
15% -24.5% 1% -25.6%
20% -31.9% 1% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.35 per $1 lost it wins $2.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses30 / 58
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)88 / 89
History coverage268d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $42 +$2 +4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $66 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $77 −$1 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $18 −$2 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $114 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $94 +$9 +10%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $9 −$1 -9%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $96 −$2 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 11 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $18 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $85 −$2 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $11 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $94 $0 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $39 +$5 +14%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $27 −$3 -11%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 21 $28 −$8 -27%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $36 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $53 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 12 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 12 $550 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $550 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $112 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 10 $545 +$2 +0%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 16 $255 +$1 +0%
Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 15 $13 −$1 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 13 $163 +$2 +1%
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 12 $22 +$1 +5%
Will Canada win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 11 $252 $0 +0%
GG Jackson II: Points O/U 10.5 Mar 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trần Thanh Mẫn be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 10 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 10 $63 +$7 +11%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $5 $0 -6%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jan 31 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $2 −$1 -25%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $5 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 16 $1 $0 -1%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $8 +$28 +335%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $37 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 24 $22 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 24 $65 $0 -0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 26¢ $43 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 25¢ $42 2h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $55 11h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $12 11h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $66 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $21 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $13 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $14 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $76 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $38 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $17 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $18 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $95 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $95 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $19 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $17 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 69¢ $103 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $94 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $8 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $4 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $5 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $95 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $96 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.00 (match) · 356 history records