Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:40:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
27 0x27f9…9d9b other 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$249 (+17%) realized +$249 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%32W / 32L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$165
14 days+$165
30 days+$165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% −$153
other 38% +$365
sports 12% +$30
culture 8% −$33
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +68.5% +52.5% 60% 60% +57.4%
≤30d 15 +68.5% +52.5% 60% 60% +57.4%
≤90d 59 +9.6% -0.8% 49% 46% +2.5%
all 64 +14.5% +3.6% 50% 47% +4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.6% 47% +4.8%
10% -6.3% 42% -5.3%
15% -15.4% 36% -14.4%
20% -23.7% 31% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$11 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$249
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses32 / 32
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage104d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Yes 55¢ 55¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +38%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 +$23 +434%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $20 −$1 -4%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +63%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$14 +46%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 +$24 +119%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 16 $20 +$91 +442%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $30 +$30 +97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$9 +93%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$11 +109%
Sadio Mané: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 28 $15 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 18 $96 −$16 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 18 $5 −$4 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 18 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $40 +$58 +145%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Apr 12 $67 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Apr 12 $52 −$29 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 12 $6 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 12 $33 −$27 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 12 $100 −$22 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 12 $71 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 10 $27 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 09 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 09 $20 −$9 -46%
Will Pam Bondi be held in contempt of Congress by April 30? Apr 09 $6 −$1 -20%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 09 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 09 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 09 $16 +$9 +58%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 09 $5 +$9 +180%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $54 +$32 +59%
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 08 $20 +$3 +13%
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? Apr 08 $15 +$19 +129%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 08 $10 +$15 +145%
Mohamed Salah: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 08 $5 −$5 -95%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 08 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 08 $40 −$22 -56%
Kylian Mbappe: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 08 $15 +$12 +79%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $35 −$25 -71%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $20 +$3 +14%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Apr 07 $10 −$3 -34%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be grea Apr 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $30 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 10h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 35¢ $20 43h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 43h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 2d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 61¢ $10 2d
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 3d
Sadio Mané: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $5 3d
Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $15 3d
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $20 3d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $30 3d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 33¢ $19 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $12 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $93 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $79 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 62d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $6 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $3 66d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.73 · official $29.73 (match) · 170 history records