Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:17:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
27 0x27f7…2cb7 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$79 (+11%) realized +$80 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%9W / 3L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$73
crypto 12% +$49
sports 7% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +21.8% +10.2% 75% 75% +3.3%
≤30d 12 +21.8% +10.2% 75% 75% +3.3%
≤90d 12 +21.8% +10.2% 75% 75% +3.3%
all 12 +21.8% +10.2% 75% 75% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.2% 75% +3.3%
10% -0.4% 58% -6.6%
15% -10.0% 58% -15.6%
20% -18.8% 42% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$33 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized+$80
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses9 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage4d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $158 $157 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $107 +$51 +48%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $50 −$48 -96%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 −$42 -42%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $81 +$48 +59%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$7 +36%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $35 +$22 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$11 +57%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$18 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$10 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $158 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $28 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $39 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $39 11h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 11h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $50 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 22¢ $19 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 15h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $129 15h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $40 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 65¢ $40 18h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 34h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 78¢ $28 34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 40h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $16 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $41 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $35 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.89 · official $156.89 (match) · 33 history records