Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:42:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27f6…400b crypto 156 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ Covers last 44d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,312 (-175%) realized −$3,592 · open +$280
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate47%94W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$508now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 44d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$67
crypto 20% −$13
other 17% +$51
world 8% +$195
finance 0% +$1
tech 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 -10.9% -19.4% 58% 50% -5.1%
≤30d 109 -12.4% -20.8% 57% 49% -9.9%
≤90d 199 -23.3% -30.6% 47% 38% -23.0%
all 199 -23.3% -30.6% 47% 38% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.6% 38% -23.0%
10% -37.2% 30% -30.4%
15% -43.3% 23% -37.1%
20% -48.9% 20% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$508
Realized−$3,592
Unrealized+$280
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses94 / 105
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions18
Markets (closed)199 / 156
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 29¢ 100¢ $92 $311 +$219 (+238%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 4¢ 11¢ $31 $99 +$68 (+217%)
Will Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026? No 54¢ 72¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+33%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 85¢ 82¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 30¢ 32¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 42¢ 29¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-30%)
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? Odd 74¢ 50¢ $4 $2 −$1 (-32%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? No 63¢ 80¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+28%)
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 72¢ 46¢ $4 $2 −$1 (-37%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? No 82¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+21%)
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 71¢ 92¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+29%)
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 57¢ 36¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-36%)
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No 63¢ 81¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+29%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 52¢ 44¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 28¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 60¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 52¢ 8¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-84%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 65¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 98 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Jun 17 $9 −$18 -200%
Will Estoril Praia win on 2026-05-03? Jun 17 $9 −$18 -200%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$20 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on April 19? Jun 17 $2 −$4 -204%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 21? Jun 17 $2 −$4 -204%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 70-71°F on April 20 Jun 17 $7 −$13 -202%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$5 -204%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on April 21? Jun 17 $3 −$6 -204%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 19? Jun 17 $3 −$5 -204%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-30? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-04-19? Jun 17 $1 −$2 -201%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 20? Jun 17 $6 −$12 -202%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 21? Jun 17 $3 −$7 -203%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$3 -201%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on April 19? Jun 17 $7 −$15 -201%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Jun 17 $8 −$16 -201%
Nottingham Forest FC leading at halftime? Jun 17 $4 −$7 -201%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-19? Jun 17 $1 −$3 -202%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-19? Jun 17 $3 −$5 -202%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on April Jun 17 $1 −$3 -204%
Will CD Huachipato win on 2026-04-19? Jun 17 $3 −$6 -201%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? Jun 17 $9 −$19 -200%
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standing Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$2 -202%
Fulham FC leading at halftime? Jun 17 $4 −$7 -201%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? Jun 17 $9 −$19 -200%
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on April 20? Jun 17 $1 −$2 -203%
Will Paris FC win on 2026-04-19? Jun 17 $1 −$2 -201%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$4 -204%
Will US Cremonese vs. Torino FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$4 -201%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on April 19 Jun 17 $4 −$8 -203%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 17 $9 −$18 -200%
Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on April 20? Jun 17 $3 −$7 -203%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? Jun 17 $1 −$2 -202%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 21? Jun 17 $2 −$4 -204%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 19? Jun 17 $2 −$5 -204%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-04-19? Jun 17 $1 −$2 -202%
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-04-18? Jun 17 $5 −$10 -202%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on April 19 Jun 17 $2 −$4 -202%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $36 +$21 +58%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $96 −$94 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $35 −$34 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$7 +126%
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $32 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 63¢ $36 35h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $96 35h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $35 38h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 78¢ $34 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $92 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 69¢ $56 3d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 83¢ $66 3d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 58¢ $50 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $25 24d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 56¢ $50 24d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla BUY MOUZ 35¢ $51 25d
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) BUY Cavaliers 51¢ $77 30d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 64¢ $50 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15? BUY No 74¢ $7 33d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 33d
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 92¢ $6 33d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $7 33d
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $14 33d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $15 33d
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Brute (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Play BUY MANA eSports 48¢ $5 33d
Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $20 33d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B BUY Natus Vincere 42¢ $11 34d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 81¢ $7 34d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of May 11 2026? BUY No 83¢ $7 34d
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY No 73¢ $7 34d
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi BUY Yes 80¢ $6 34d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $6 34d
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? BUY No 84¢ $6 34d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $6 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $508.01 · official $508.01 (match) · 3500 history records