Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:24:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27f3…31ec other 202 markets active 0h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$24,867 (-41%) realized −$24,867 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate44%85W / 107L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$299per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$172est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,604
7 days−$3,462
14 days−$3,443
30 days−$4,573
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$21,140
other 28% −$1,261
sports 19% −$1,276
crypto 17% −$268
politics 0% −$3
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -66.0% -69.2% 17% 13% -28.2%
≤30d 75 -18.6% -26.4% 37% 27% -28.4%
≤90d 75 -18.6% -26.4% 37% 27% -28.4%
all 192 -14.2% -22.3% 44% 28% -45.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 28% -45.5%
10% -29.8% 23% -50.7%
15% -36.6% 17% -55.4%
20% -42.8% 14% -59.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$289 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$24,867
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses85 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$172
Open positions3
Markets (closed)192 / 202
History coverage126d
Avg bet$299
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 192 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4,936 +$2,549 +52%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $132 −$132 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $305 −$305 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $584 −$584 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $2,014 −$2,014 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 19 $262 −$262 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $1,027 −$1,027 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 19 $316 −$316 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,472 −$1,472 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $103 −$81 -78%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $204 −$37 -18%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $132 +$142 +108%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$58 +114%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $157 +$147 +93%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $113 −$87 -77%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 −$48 -47%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,217 +$270 +6%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-06-05? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Aruba win on 2026-06-06? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Puerto Rico win on 2026-06-05? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Liechtenstein win on 2026-06-04? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Finland win on 2026-06-05? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-05? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Guam win on 2026-06-06? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-04? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-06? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Honduras win on 2026-06-06? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mongolia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Serbia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-04? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nicaragua win on 2026-06-05? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Bermuda win on 2026-06-06? Jun 14 $116 −$116 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$42 +82%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$161 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 09 $17 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Ko BUY 7¢ $5 4m
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 41¢ $6 4m
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 5m
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 5m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $7,485 13m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $4,936 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $997 4h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $475 44h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $2,014 44h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $22 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,027 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $167 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 44¢ $305 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $173 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $219 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 49¢ $305 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $273 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $109 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $41 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 5¢ $25 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.53 · official $20.24 · 605 history records