Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:25:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
27 0x27ee…a1de other 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 663d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$4,147 (+16%) realized +$5,499 · open −$1,352
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate42%30W / 41L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$353per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$6,762now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,285
7 days+$5,285
14 days+$5,285
30 days+$5,285
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$4,918
sports 22% −$1,860
politics 3% −$259
economics 2% −$96
world 2% −$49
culture 0% −$102
tech 0% −$43
crypto 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +182.2% +155.3% 100% 100% +155.3%
≤30d 1 +182.2% +155.3% 100% 100% +155.3%
≤90d 6 -8.7% -17.4% 50% 33% +120.4%
all 71 -23.3% -30.6% 42% 34% +14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.6% 34% +14.4%
10% -37.2% 27% +3.5%
15% -43.3% 24% -6.5%
20% -48.9% 18% -15.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +143% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +24% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -37% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$318 vs −$143 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

663d coverage
Net worth$6,762
Realized+$5,499
Unrealized−$1,352
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses30 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage663d
Avg bet$353
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 62¢ $8,114 $6,762 −$1,352 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2,900 +$5,285 +182%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $399 −$210 -53%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $198 +$12 +6%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $134 +$80 +59%
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Nov 27 $3,300 −$3,300 -100%
Will Aztec launch a token in 2025? Nov 26 $2,215 +$807 +36%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 24 $100 +$42 +42%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Nov 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Nov 20 $132 +$58 +44%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 02 $102 +$85 +83%
Rolex Paris Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev Oct 31 $485 +$757 +156%
Will Lazio win on 2025-10-30? Oct 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Belinda Bencic vs Yafan Wang Oct 30 $100 +$20 +20%
Will Powell say "Possibility" during October press conference? Oct 29 $113 +$65 +58%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-26? Oct 26 $300 −$204 -68%
Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers Oct 23 $771 +$657 +85%
Will Trump say "Ukraine" or "Ukrainian" 10+ times during events with t Oct 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Will anyone say "Satan" 3+ times during South Park e6 s27? Oct 17 $82 +$18 +22%
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during October press conference? Oct 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Serbia win on 2025-10-14? Oct 15 $807 +$177 +22%
Broncos vs. Jets: O/U 43.5 Oct 12 $90 +$70 +79%
Spread: Broncos (-7.5) Oct 12 $376 −$120 -32%
Broncos vs. Jets Oct 12 $50 −$15 -29%
Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2025? Oct 01 $27 −$27 -100%
Trump announce run for 3rd term? Oct 01 $26 −$3 -12%
Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? Sep 28 $1,121 −$421 -38%
Will Europe win the 2025 Ryder Cup? Sep 27 $519 +$610 +118%
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2025? Sep 24 $109 +$58 +53%
Gaza mass population relocation in 2025? Sep 11 $50 +$2 +5%
Will Apple launch an AirTag on September 9? Sep 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Ukraine agree to give up Russian territory in Kursk? Sep 09 $42 +$4 +8%
Will Slovenia win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? Sep 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open? Sep 08 $318 +$586 +184%
Will Bryson DeChambeau complete the shot on Day 10? Sep 04 $10 −$9 -98%
Trump out as President in 2025? Sep 02 $28 $0 -0%
Will Trump resign today? Sep 02 $36 −$9 -25%
Russia announces air truce by August 31? Sep 01 $21 +$16 +72%
Obama divorce in 2025? Aug 29 $10 −$1 -6%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Aug 22 $261 −$83 -32%
Israel strikes Yemen by August 31? Aug 17 $50 +$19 +39%
Israel strikes Yemen by August 15? Aug 16 $50 +$12 +24%
Will Trump and Putin shake hands for 10 seconds or more? Aug 14 $80 −$80 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Aug 14 $92 −$12 -13%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump and Putin shake hands for between 4 and 6 seconds? Aug 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump and Putin shake hands for between 2 and 4 seconds? Aug 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Paetongtarn Shinawatra out as PM of Thailand by August 31? Aug 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will a dildo be thrown onto the court at a WNBA game on Tuesday? Aug 13 $49 +$6 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $8,175 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 93¢ $8,185 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 33¢ $12 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 32¢ $2,888 3h
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 16¢ $100 38d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 38¢ $189 73d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes 37¢ $189 73d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 41¢ $210 73d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 70¢ $210 73d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 66¢ $198 73d
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes $15 74d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-11? SELL Yes 92¢ $214 74d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 57¢ $134 74d
Timberwolves vs. Thunder BUY Timberwolves 22¢ $3,300 209d
Will Aztec launch a token in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $571 210d
Will Aztec launch a token in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $2,452 211d
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? SELL Yes 95¢ $143 212d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? BUY Yes $20 214d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 95¢ $189 216d
Will Aztec launch a token in 2025? BUY No 73¢ $187 234d
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL Yes 93¢ $187 234d
Will Aztec launch a token in 2025? BUY No 80¢ $1,428 235d
Rolex Paris Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev SELL Zverev 100¢ $1,243 236d
Rolex Paris Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev BUY Zverev 29¢ $100 236d
Rolex Paris Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev BUY Zverev 41¢ $100 236d
Rolex Paris Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev BUY Zverev 43¢ $200 236d
Rolex Paris Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev BUY Zverev 45¢ $32 236d
Rolex Paris Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev BUY Zverev 45¢ $54 236d
Will Lazio win on 2025-10-30? BUY Yes $20 237d
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Belinda Bencic vs Yafan Wang BUY Bencic 83¢ $100 237d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,762.03 · official $6,762.03 (match) · 204 history records