Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:35:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
27 0x27ed…14f4 crypto 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$17 (+4%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR76%break-even
Win rate88%15W / 2L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$136
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +76%
net ROI/market (all)+17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +29.3% +17.0% 88% 76% +21.2%
≤30d 17 +29.3% +17.0% 88% 76% +21.2%
≤90d 17 +29.3% +17.0% 88% 76% +21.2%
all 17 +29.3% +17.0% 88% 76% +21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.0% 76% +21.2%
10% +5.8% 65% +9.6%
15% -4.4% 59% -1.0%
20% -13.8% 35% -10.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +37% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×13.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×97.62 per $1 lost it wins $97.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses15 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage2d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$10 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $52 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$13 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$16 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 23 $9 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $8 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records