Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:07:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

27 0x27e4…108d sports 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 80d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$21 (+10%) realized +$22 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip

Net edge+8%after slip

Net WR24%break-even

Win rate24%6W / 19L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$8per market

Trades / day0.5pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit73%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$38

7 days−$38

14 days−$46

30 days−$10

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +24%

net ROI/market (all)+8.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-47.3%	-52.3%	33%	33%	-45.4%
≤30d	16	+61.4%	+46.0%	25%	25%	-16.5%
≤90d	25	+19.6%	+8.2%	24%	24%	-24.2%
all	25	+19.6%	+8.2%	24%	24%	-24.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+8.2%	24%	-24.2%
10%	-2.1%	24%	-31.5%
15%	-11.6%	20%	-38.1%
20%	-20.2%	16%	-44.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 45% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +20% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +7% → late +31% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$15 vs −$6 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.74 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$22

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)24%

Wins / losses6 / 19

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)25 / 26

History coverage80d

Avg bet$8

Trades / day0.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 25 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	9¢	4¢	$1	$0	−$1 (-53%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Jun 29	$26	−$25	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Jun 29	$27	−$25	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Jun 28	$5	−$5	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Jun 28	$26	+$17	+63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Jun 28	$11	−$5	-44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Jun 28	$10	+$5	+46%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$15	−$15	-98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	Jun 18	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 18	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 18	$2	−$2	-98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$2	−$2	-98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$1	+$13	+1290%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-97%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?	Jun 09	$5	+$40	+776%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev	May 16	$1	−$1	-97%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	May 13	$1	−$1	-97%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Rafael Jodar	May 11	$20	+$7	+32%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Ground Zero Gaming (BO3) - LCP Regular Season	Apr 19	$5	−$5	-98%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	Apr 18	$5	−$5	-97%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	Apr 18	$5	+$7	+148%
BMW Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Alex Molcan	Apr 16	$15	−$4	-23%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	Apr 11	$10	−$10	-98%
Monza: Martin Landaluce vs Hugo Gaston	Apr 10	$10	−$10	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	BUY Up	38¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	BUY Up	5¢	$27	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$5	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	SELL Up	50¢	$43	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	BUY Up	28¢	$26	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	BUY Up	9¢	$5	15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	SELL Up	31¢	$5	15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	BUY Up	29¢	$5	15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	SELL Up	97¢	$5	15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	BUY Up	92¢	$5	15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	SELL Up	62¢	$10	15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	BUY Up	31¢	$5	15h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	16¢	$15	7d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	9¢	$1	10d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	4¢	$1	10d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$2	10d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	15¢	$2	10d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	19¢	$2	14d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	7¢	$1	14d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	4¢	$1	14d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1	14d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?	SELL Yes	100¢	$45	19d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?	BUY Yes	11¢	$5	28d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev	BUY Daniil Medvedev	5¢	$1	43d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	BUY DN SOOPers	3¢	$1	46d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	BUY Yes	9¢	$1	46d
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Rafael Jodar	BUY Jannik Sinner	75¢	$20	60d
LoL: GAM Esports vs Ground Zero Gaming (BO3) - LCP Regular Season	BUY Ground Zero Gaming	23¢	$5	70d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	BUY DN SOOPers	7¢	$5	71d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	SELL Invictus Gaming	28¢	$12	71d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.47 · official $0.47 (match) · 38 history records