Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:26:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
27 0x27e3…7233 other 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$53 (+2%) realized −$42 · open +$95
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate62%18W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$1,077now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$76
14 days+$76
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$5
crypto 29% +$114
sports 12% −$22
tech 0% +$1
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +23.5% +11.8% 71% 71% +1.6%
≤30d 15 -5.2% -14.2% 60% 47% -10.5%
≤90d 29 +4.8% -5.2% 62% 41% -9.3%
all 29 +4.8% -5.2% 62% 41% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 41% -9.3%
10% -14.3% 38% -18.0%
15% -22.6% 31% -25.9%
20% -30.2% 28% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$22 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$1,077
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$95
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses18 / 11
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)29 / 35
History coverage34d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $349 $450 +$100 (+29%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $213 $236 +$24 (+11%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 27¢ 22¢ $184 $146 −$37 (-20%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 77¢ 88¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $78 $79 +$1 (+1%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 17¢ $58 $52 −$6 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 22 $132 −$5 -4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $58 +$32 +55%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $70 +$44 +62%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $61 +$19 +31%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $118 −$117 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $62 +$45 +73%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $122 +$58 +48%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 04 $40 −$23 -59%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $36 −$36 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $36 +$28 +78%
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils May 25 $15 +$5 +34%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Botic van de Zandschulp May 25 $10 $0 +2%
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Paderborn leading at halftime? May 25 $10 −$9 -98%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 Week of May 18 2026? May 22 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $10 $0 +3%
Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $2 +$2 +97%
FC Utrecht vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 5.5 May 21 $39 +$2 +4%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $3 +$3 +86%
AFC Ajax vs. FC Groningen: O/U 5.5 May 21 $45 +$1 +3%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Daniel Altmaier May 21 $20 −$2 -9%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann May 20 $2 +$1 +51%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 20 $2 +$2 +79%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $13 +$2 +18%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k? May 20 $1 −$1 -58%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $1 $0 -47%
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on May 20? May 20 $1 $0 -13%
ITF Maringa: Ryan Augusto Dos Santos vs Sidney Emanuel Meneguetti May 20 $1 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 202 BUY Yes 19¢ $60 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $38 31h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 40¢ $38 31h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $27 31h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $62 31h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 40¢ $89 31h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $52 32h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $118 32h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $48 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $105 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $58 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $70 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $61 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $118 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $62 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $122 6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $132 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $188 8d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 98¢ $1 9d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 18d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 20¢ $2 18d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $14 18d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 26¢ $15 18d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 59¢ $40 18d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $40 18d
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $36 18d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $34 18d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $371 20d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $33 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,077.32 · official $1,075.68 (match) · 110 history records