Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:17:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27e0…b09b other 318 markets active 0h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$84 (+1%) realized −$46 · open +$130
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%33W / 282L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$236now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$339
7 days+$13
14 days−$48
30 days−$560
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$1,840
world 13% −$253
politics 12% −$860
crypto 7% −$482
sports 7% +$32
culture 3% −$244
weather 2% −$188
tech 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-43.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +6.6% -3.6% 25% 23% -8.7%
≤30d 70 -16.4% -24.4% 20% 19% -24.9%
≤90d 315 -37.3% -43.2% 10% 10% -11.7%
all 315 -37.3% -43.2% 10% 10% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.2% 10% -11.7%
10% -48.7% 9% -20.2%
15% -53.6% 8% -27.9%
20% -58.2% 8% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$148 vs −$19 · ×7.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$236
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$130
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses33 / 282
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions3
Markets (closed)315 / 318
History coverage77d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 315 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 37¢ 82¢ $56 $125 +$69 (+123%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Pakistan 2¢ 7¢ $30 $104 +$74 (+246%)
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $20 $7 −$13 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 96 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$1 +3%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 +$45 +221%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $31 +$51 +166%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$12 +39%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 +$6 +32%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $41 −$36 -88%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 −$26 -84%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $23 −$23 -97%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $31 +$345 +1119%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 15 $51 −$12 -23%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$45 -87%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $31 −$11 -34%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $38 +$60 +158%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 +$197 +480%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $37 −$35 -95%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $21 −$3 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -64%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$7 -72%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 15 $30 +$31 +104%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $41 −$39 -95%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $51 −$28 -55%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $23 −$23 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $31 +$23 +74%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $31 −$14 -46%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$20 -64%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $194 −$188 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $24 −$24 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $41 −$22 -53%
Qatar leading at halftime? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 3 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 13 $10 +$71 +706%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $15 −$14 -96%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 07 $61 −$46 -76%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 29 to June Jun 02 $16 −$15 -95%
Will White House post 120-139 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $16 −$15 -95%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 31 $12 −$7 -61%
Will Trump say "Goat" in May? May 31 $48 −$44 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 13¢ $53 22m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 23m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 2¢ $21 44m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $66 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 3¢ $10 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan SELL Pakistan 2¢ $2 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 8¢ $19 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 17¢ $20 2h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $43 23h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 18¢ $27 23h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 24h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 24h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 25h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 43h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 43h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 43h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 43h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 11¢ $23 44h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 88¢ $376 44h
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 44h
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? SELL Yes 21¢ $39 44h
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 44h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 46h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 46h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $235.81 · official $242.78 · 795 history records