Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:34:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27e0…1256 other 125 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%18W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 25% +$1
sports 23% −$2
politics 22% −$1
economics 11% −$1
crypto 10% −$1
tech 4% $0
world 3% −$1
culture 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 3 -0.5% -9.9% 33% 0% -10.1%
all 124 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses18 / 106
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage162d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $53 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 18 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 12 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 12 $72 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Feb 12 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 12 $41 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 12 $104 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 12 $124 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 12 $54 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 12 $142 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026? Feb 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 12 $49 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 12 $47 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 12 $108 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 12 $161 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 12 $152 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 12 $69 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 12 $51 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 12 $57 +$1 +1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 12 $47 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 12 $31 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 10 $54 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Feb 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 10 $4 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 10 $57 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 10 $72 −$1 -2%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 10 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 10 $66 $0 -0%
Will Czech Republic win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Wi Feb 10 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 10 $136 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 06 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 06 $51 $0 -0%
Will Kenneth Walker III win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 06 $54 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 06 $64 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 06 $72 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 06 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 06 $70 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? Feb 06 $53 $0 -0%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66? Feb 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 06 $9 $0 -1%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 06 $24 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 06 $105 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 04 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Feb 03 $9 $0 -1%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 03 $12 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $48 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $5 12d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $5 12d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $53 25d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $53 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $51 38d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $51 38d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $51 133d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $51 133d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $53 133d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $53 133d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? SELL No 98¢ $51 133d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? BUY No 98¢ $51 133d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $41 133d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL No 96¢ $10 133d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $41 133d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL No 96¢ $38 133d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 96¢ $48 133d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 95¢ $48 133d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 95¢ $48 133d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $48 133d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $48 133d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $53 133d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $53 133d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $49 133d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $49 133d
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $55 133d
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $55 133d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $52 133d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $52 133d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.15 · official $48.15 (match) · 476 history records