Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:04:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27e0…d036 other 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 619d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$240 (-6%) realized −$148 · open −$92
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%24W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$272
14 days−$362
30 days−$362
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$104
other 20% −$553
politics 7% +$219
economics 4% +$80
crypto 3% −$23
finance 2% +$92
world 1% −$18
tech 1% −$30
culture 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 9 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 29 -27.2% -34.1% 41% 31% -15.2%
all 73 -19.7% -27.3% 33% 29% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.3% 29% -13.5%
10% -34.3% 26% -21.8%
15% -40.6% 25% -29.3%
20% -46.4% 22% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$31 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

619d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$148
Unrealized−$92
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses24 / 49
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)73 / 77
History coverage619d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-31%)
Haiti leading at halftime? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $41 $1 −$40 (-98%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $183 −$82 -45%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Fed rate hike in 2026? May 19 $140 +$107 +77%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 18 $26 −$26 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18? May 15 $11 −$11 -97%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 01 $204 −$204 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Apr 26 $20 +$8 +41%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 26 $30 +$59 +197%
Suns vs. Bulls Apr 06 $200 +$37 +18%
Hornets vs. Nets Apr 05 $184 +$16 +8%
Lakers vs. Thunder Apr 05 $200 +$61 +31%
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 31 $20 +$4 +21%
Celtics vs. Hornets Mar 30 $48 +$52 +108%
Kings vs. Magic Mar 29 $273 +$27 +10%
Kings vs. Hornets Mar 26 $300 +$26 +9%
Lakers vs. Pacers Mar 24 $17 −$17 -100%
Lakers vs. Pistons Mar 24 $100 +$108 +108%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 23 $45 +$127 +283%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Mar 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Lakers vs. Magic Mar 22 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Mar 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $5,000 by end of March? Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Levante UD vs. Real Oviedo end in a draw? Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 21? Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 21? Mar 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Warriors vs. Pistons Mar 21 $120 +$59 +49%
Hawks vs. Rockets Mar 21 $110 +$73 +67%
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026 Mar 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 18 $5 +$58 +1150%
Pistons vs. Wizards Mar 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 16 $110 +$109 +99%
Magic vs. Hawks Mar 16 $125 −$125 -100%
Will "Trump" be said at the Oscars? Mar 16 $10 +$16 +156%
Trail Blazers vs. 76ers Mar 16 $10 +$30 +300%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Will "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" be said at the Oscars? Mar 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Haiti leading at halftime? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 1h
Haiti leading at halftime? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Haiti leading at halftime? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Haiti leading at halftime? BUY Yes 5¢ $26 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $46 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $15 4d
Japan leading at halftime? SELL Yes 8¢ $37 5d
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 5d
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 5d
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 10¢ $33 5d
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 5d
Japan leading at halftime? SELL Yes 10¢ $58 5d
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 5d
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 5d
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 5d
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 5d
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 22¢ $113 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 1¢ $2 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 1¢ $3 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 1¢ $1 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 1¢ $1 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 1¢ $3 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 1¢ $1 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 1¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.60 · official $63.60 (match) · 273 history records