Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:41:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
27 0x27de…110c other 110 markets active 17h ago coverage 438d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+0%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate42%46W / 63L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$30
14 days+$36
30 days+$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$13
world 43% +$80
sports 8% +$4
politics 2% −$45
finance 2% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.3% -8.3% 56% 11% -8.0%
≤30d 34 +1.9% -7.8% 59% 6% -8.4%
≤90d 47 +0.4% -9.1% 49% 4% -9.2%
all 109 -3.2% -12.4% 42% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 3% -9.3%
10% -20.8% 2% -18.0%
15% -28.4% 0% -25.9%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

438d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses46 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage438d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 25¢ 12¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $143 +$21 +15%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $148 +$2 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $136 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $534 +$7 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $145 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $14 $0 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $614 −$2 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $16 −$1 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $147 +$2 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $146 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $11 $0 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $432 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $522 +$1 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $318 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $143 +$4 +2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $203 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $143 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $17 $0 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $143 −$1 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $143 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $282 −$2 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $112 +$2 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $158 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $208 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $60 +$6 +10%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 28 $370 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $134 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $124 +$12 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $98 +$24 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $48 +$4 +9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $399 +$1 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $114 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $99 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $36 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $2,073 +$2 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $967 +$3 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $70 +$1 +2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $1,064 −$1 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $87 −$40 -46%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $148 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $46 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $1,004 −$2 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,104 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 21 $13 $0 -2%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 15 $18 −$6 -31%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 55¢ $24 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 55¢ $140 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 48¢ $14 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 48¢ $129 21h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $64 24h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $79 24h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 79¢ $115 28h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 79¢ $31 28h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 23¢ $11 31h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 23¢ $45 32h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 25¢ $61 34h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $85 38h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $24 38h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $41 38h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $148 41h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $13 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $11 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $4 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $139 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $130 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $151 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $7 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $163 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $42 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $34 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.08 · official $0.00 (match) · 401 history records