Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:34:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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27 0x27dc…028a crypto 247 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (264 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$848 (-12%) realized −$849 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate44%109W / 137L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day263.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$104
7 days−$241
14 days−$407
30 days−$407
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$399
other 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (264 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 219 -13.9% -22.1% 46% 34% -13.2%
≤30d 246 -15.6% -23.6% 44% 32% -14.5%
≤90d 246 -15.6% -23.6% 44% 32% -14.5%
all 246 -15.6% -23.6% 44% 32% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover263.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.6% 32% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -30.9% 22% -22.7%
15% -37.6% 13% -30.2%
20% -43.7% 5% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$849
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses109 / 137
Open positions1
Markets (closed)246 / 247
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$30
Trades / day263.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 246 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 73¢ 78¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$4 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$4 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.70 · official $14.70 (match) · 3500 history records