Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:33:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
27 0x27db…af68 world 140 markets active 4h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,994 (+8%) realized +$2,030 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%65W / 72L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74
7 days−$871
14 days+$234
30 days+$1,587
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% +$3,360
crypto 12% −$866
other 4% −$447
sports 2% −$168
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -35.3% -41.4% 30% 26% -27.0%
≤30d 57 -4.5% -13.6% 42% 37% +1.6%
≤90d 108 +5.6% -4.5% 44% 38% -3.0%
all 137 +8.1% -2.2% 47% 40% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 40% -2.7%
10% -11.5% 31% -12.0%
15% -20.1% 26% -20.5%
20% -27.9% 22% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +27% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$69 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized+$2,030
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses65 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions3
Markets (closed)137 / 140
History coverage136d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $63 $60 −$3 (-6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 6¢ 3¢ $77 $38 −$39 (-50%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $200 +$81 +40%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $800 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$35 -66%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $170 −$74 -44%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $621 −$285 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 10 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 10 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 10 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $411 −$411 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 10 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 10 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 10 $205 −$15 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $200 +$111 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $303 +$42 +14%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 10 $320 +$70 +22%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $391 +$94 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$21 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 10 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 10 $52 +$39 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $314 −$11 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $26 +$93 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 10 $53 −$20 -37%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 09 $100 −$10 -10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $190 +$10 +5%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 08 $510 −$196 -38%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $1,582 −$126 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 08 $26 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 08 $154 −$36 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 08 $53 +$38 +73%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $740 +$636 +86%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $360 +$218 +60%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $970 +$379 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 07 $52 +$76 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 07 $26 +$111 +420%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 05 $133 −$133 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 05 $206 +$162 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 05 $62 +$10 +16%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $166 −$62 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 28 $5 −$4 -82%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $170 +$25 +15%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 26 $100 −$42 -42%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $602 +$50 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 26 $10 −$3 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 4h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $30 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $20 9h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 27h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $57 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $281 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $803 29h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $174 37h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $3 37h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $17 37h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $6 37h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $302 37h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $498 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $18 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $96 4d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $49 4d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 4d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $33 4d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 4d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $70 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? SELL Yes 28¢ $22 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? SELL Yes 28¢ $314 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? BUY Yes 22¢ $220 5d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? BUY Yes 34¢ $34 5d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 5d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 5d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 5d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? BUY Yes 35¢ $70 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.50 · official $134.50 (match) · 843 history records