Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:31:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27da…d24a other 968 markets active 2h ago coverage 251d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$455 (-3%) realized −$448 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate64%606W / 344L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$38
14 days−$125
30 days−$245
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$54
other 22% −$273
world 8% −$56
sports 4% −$30
politics 4% −$16
culture 4% −$8
tech 2% +$1
weather 1% $0
economics 1% −$27
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -11.8% -20.2% 50% 17% -13.9%
≤30d 193 -26.7% -33.7% 50% 9% -19.5%
≤90d 426 -19.9% -27.6% 62% 15% -17.3%
all 950 -16.1% -24.1% 64% 22% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 22% -12.3%
10% -31.3% 17% -20.7%
15% -38.0% 14% -28.4%
20% -44.0% 10% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$448
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses606 / 344
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)950 / 968
History coverage251d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 950 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 82¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? No 98¢ 95¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 99¢ 11¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-89%)
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Uber ask Travis Kalanick back by June 30, 2027? Yes 22¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 232 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? Jun 22 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru Jun 22 $4 $0 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 22? Jun 22 $4 $0 +0%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $34 −$3 -9%
Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? Jun 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 22 $6 −$1 -12%
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 22 $7 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on June 19 Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $3 $0 +12%
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Jun 21 $13 −$4 -26%
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$2 -53%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 21 $42 −$2 -4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 +$1 +13%
Will Claire Valdez win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by more than 15%? Jun 21 $46 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Jun 21 $34 −$13 -37%
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 21 $68 −$1 -2%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $55 $0 -0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: All Gamers vs Four Angry Men - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $35 −$6 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $6 −$4 -68%
Will Claire Valdez win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? Jun 20 $11 −$1 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +55%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $10 −$2 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $3 $0 +5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 $0 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +76%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $38 −$1 -3%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 $0 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? Jun 19 $43 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b Jun 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro Jun 19 $4 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 18 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06- Jun 18 $4 +$3 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? SELL No 73¢ $38 2h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY No 74¢ $39 2h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru SELL No 7¢ $4 2h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru BUY No 8¢ $4 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $5 8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 15¢ $1 12h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $31 15h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $34 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? BUY No 98¢ $3 16h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $5 16h
Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? SELL No 91¢ $6 16h
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio SELL No 11¢ $6 16h
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 16h
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 18h
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY No 12¢ $6 20h
Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? BUY No 91¢ $6 21h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? SELL No 2¢ $1 26h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 82¢ $5 26h
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 28h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL No 21¢ $41 28h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No 21¢ $42 29h
Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? SELL No 91¢ $11 30h
Will Claire Valdez win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by more than 15%? SELL No 86¢ $45 30h
Will Claire Valdez win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by more than 15%? BUY No 86¢ $28 30h
Will Claire Valdez win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by more than 15%? BUY No 86¢ $6 30h
Will Claire Valdez win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by more than 15%? BUY No 86¢ $6 30h
Will Claire Valdez win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by more than 15%? BUY No 86¢ $5 30h
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 31h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $1 31h
Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? BUY No 91¢ $11 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.46 · official $38.46 · 1871 history records