Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:08:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27d9…2d4f crypto 51 markets active 16h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (91 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12 (-2%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate28%14W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day90.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$107
sports 1% $0
other 1% −$5
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (91 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +7.3% -2.9% 28% 26% -35.8%
≤30d 50 +7.3% -2.9% 28% 26% -35.8%
≤90d 50 +7.3% -2.9% 28% 26% -35.8%
all 50 +7.3% -2.9% 28% 26% -35.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover90.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.9% 26% -35.8%
10% ← realistic here -12.2% 22% -42.0%
15% -20.7% 20% -47.6%
20% -28.5% 18% -52.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses14 / 36
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage2d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day90.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -87%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$9 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $16 +$14 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $62 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $33 −$32 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $54 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $22 −$11 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$10 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$6 +303%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$13 +1226%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +170%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$3 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -83%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$10 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $45 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $24 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$5 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $43 +$20 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$9 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$3 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $13 +$14 +111%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 15h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 16h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $10 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $10 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 45h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $29 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $16 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $15 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $21 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $16 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $24 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $16 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $20 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $16 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $20 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $16 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.64 · official $0.64 (match) · 155 history records