Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:24:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27d9…3b92 other 524 markets active 1h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$592 (-1%) realized −$591 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate91%474W / 49L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$232now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$14
14 days+$16
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$745
crypto 13% +$54
finance 7% +$40
tech 5% +$64
world 5% +$12
politics 3% −$86
economics 2% +$4
weather 2% +$16
culture 2% +$16
sports 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.9% -7.8% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 24 +2.1% -7.6% 100% 4% -8.1%
≤90d 101 +0.9% -8.7% 96% 5% -15.1%
all 523 +0.8% -8.8% 91% 7% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 7% -10.9%
10% -17.5% 2% -19.4%
15% -25.5% 1% -27.2%
20% -32.8% 1% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$43 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$232
Realized−$591
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses474 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)523 / 524
History coverage143d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 523 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude go down 12+ times in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $233 $232 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 20 $694 +$3 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $356 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Jun 18 $123 +$5 +4%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 17 $81 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 16 $98 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $124 +$1 +1%
Trump goes to space in 2026? Jun 12 $78 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $53 +$1 +1%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 on June 9? Jun 10 $25 $0 +1%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on June 9? Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $205 on June 9? Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $370 on June 5? Jun 05 $20 $0 +1%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $250 on June 5? Jun 05 $25 $0 +1%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $245 on June 5? Jun 05 $25 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $205 on June 5? Jun 05 $13 $0 +2%
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 1 above $590? Jun 05 $93 +$13 +14%
Will Meta (META) close above $610 on June 5? Jun 05 $9 $0 +1%
Will Meta (META) close above $600 on June 5? Jun 05 $48 $0 +1%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $360 on June 4? Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $370 on June 4? Jun 04 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $255 on June 4? Jun 04 $32 +$2 +5%
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in May? May 28 $207 +$3 +1%
Will Claude go down 12+ times in May? May 26 $50 +$1 +1%
Will "European Union" be said during Eurovision? May 17 $9 +$1 +8%
Will "Budget" be said during Eurovision? May 17 $75 +$25 +34%
Will "Audit" be said during Eurovision? May 17 $80 +$20 +26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 11 $866 +$10 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 08 $197 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $385 on May 4? May 05 $35 $0 +1%
Will Chainlink be the top performing crypto for the week of March 23? Mar 30 $24 $0 +1%
Will the number of US flights delayed on March 29 be less than 6,000? Mar 30 $854 −$852 -100%
Will Solana be the top performing crypto for the week of March 23? Mar 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethena be the top performing crypto for the week of March 23? Mar 30 $83 +$2 +2%
Will Aster be the top performing crypto for the week of March 23? Mar 29 $91 +$4 +4%
Will PUMP be the top performing crypto for the week of March 23? Mar 29 $41 +$8 +21%
Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 29? Mar 29 $13 $0 +0%
Will the number of US flights delayed on March 28 be between 6,000 and Mar 29 $133 $0 +0%
Will the number of US flights delayed on March 28 be less than 6,000? Mar 29 $256 +$1 +0%
Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 28? Mar 29 $73 +$1 +1%
Will the number of US flights delayed on March 28 be between 8,500 and Mar 29 $8 $0 +2%
Will the number of US flights delayed on March 28 be between 8,000 and Mar 29 $7 $0 +2%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,900 on the final trading day of March Mar 29 $167 +$1 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,000 on the final trading day of March Mar 29 $14 $0 +1%
Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 4% on any day in Q1? Mar 29 $446 +$7 +2%
Will the number of US flights delayed on March 27 be between 5,500 and Mar 28 $112 $0 +0%
Will the number of US flights delayed on March 27 be greater than 6,00 Mar 28 $84 +$4 +5%
Over 450 US flights cancelled on March 27? Mar 28 $266 −$257 -96%
Will KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) hit 6500 (HIGH) in Q1 2026? Mar 28 $20 $0 +0%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $173 +$4 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude go down 12+ times in June? SELL No 98¢ $101 1h
Will Claude go down 12+ times in June? BUY No 98¢ $295 1h
Will Claude go down 12+ times in June? BUY No 98¢ $20 4h
Will Claude go down 12+ times in June? BUY No 98¢ $20 4h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 76¢ $80 22h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 76¢ $1 22h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 76¢ $6 22h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 76¢ $10 22h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 76¢ $1 22h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 76¢ $1 22h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 76¢ $70 22h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 76¢ $121 22h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 76¢ $10 22h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 76¢ $2 22h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 75¢ $176 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 75¢ $22 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 75¢ $4 2d
Will Claude go down 12+ times in June? SELL No 92¢ $68 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 76¢ $96 2d
Will Claude go down 12+ times in June? BUY No 91¢ $68 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 76¢ $304 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 76¢ $304 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 18? SELL No 90¢ $360 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $356 3d
Will Claude go down 12+ times in June? SELL No 90¢ $17 3d
Will Claude go down 12+ times in June? SELL No 90¢ $4 3d
Will Claude go down 12+ times in June? SELL No 90¢ $4 3d
Will Claude go down 12+ times in June? SELL No 90¢ $22 3d
Will Claude go down 12+ times in June? SELL No 90¢ $22 3d
Will Claude go down 12+ times in June? SELL No 90¢ $73 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $231.51 · official $231.51 (match) · 2264 history records