Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:44:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27d7…12c7 crypto 564 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$30 (-1%) realized −$28 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate74%418W / 144L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$10
14 days−$87
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 30% −$53
weather 29% −$15
sports 27% +$3
other 11% +$7
finance 2% +$7
politics 1% +$1
world 0% −$3
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +3.3% -6.6% 73% 73% -3.7%
≤30d 439 -2.7% -12.0% 71% 59% -11.5%
≤90d 562 -2.4% -11.7% 74% 59% -11.3%
all 562 -2.4% -11.7% 74% 59% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 59% -11.3%
10% -20.1% 23% -19.8%
15% -27.9% 18% -27.5%
20% -34.9% 13% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses418 / 144
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)562 / 564
History coverage41d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 562 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 135 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +48%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +40%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +44%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +28%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +42%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +55%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +68%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +36%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +105%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +50%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +40%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +55%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +38%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +31%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 37m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 40m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 42m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 43m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 52m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 57m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 6h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 6h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1069 history records