Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:02:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27d0…45f4 crypto 1433 markets active 19h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d only
✗ bot/MM pace (87 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$330 (-1%) realized −$330 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate85%1225W / 208L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day87.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$151
7 days−$371
14 days−$2,366
30 days−$598
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$598
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (87 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -11.2% -19.6% 68% 53% -26.1%
≤30d 1433 -1.1% -10.5% 85% 44% -11.4%
≤90d 1433 -1.1% -10.5% 85% 44% -11.4%
all 1433 -1.1% -10.5% 85% 44% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover87.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 44% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 3% -19.9%
15% -26.9% 2% -27.6%
20% -34.1% 1% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$16 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$330
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses1225 / 208
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1433 / 1433
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day87.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1433 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $34 −$33 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $29 +$11 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $35 +$7 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$13 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $86 −$82 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$14 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $159 −$154 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $29 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $120 +$93 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $151 −$146 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $137 −$132 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $125 +$24 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $17 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $60 −$38 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $41 +$11 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $42 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $41 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$4 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $295 +$38 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$19 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $114 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $23 −$18 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $9 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $12 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $12 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $12 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $12 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $12 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $12 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $12 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $11 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records