Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:23:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

27
0x27cf…3979
tech · 15 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$40 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$45 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,444
Realized+$45
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses10 / 0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)10 / 15
History coverage73d
Avg bet$393
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 5 History 10 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $692 $692 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $614 $614 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $566 $566 −$0 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 97¢ 96¢ $298 $296 −$2 (-1%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $275 $276 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? Jun 14 $205 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 14 $296 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May? Jun 14 $311 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 14 $515 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 14 $529 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? Jun 14 $584 +$3 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 15 $121 +$2 +2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 15 $229 +$2 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 15 $319 +$13 +4%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 15 $343 +$22 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 39% +$37
crypto 32% +$1
finance 29% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 10 +1.4% -8.2% 100% 0% -8.3%
all 10 +1.4% -8.2% 100% 0% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 0% -8.3%
10% -17.0% 0% -17.1%
15% -25.0% 0% -25.1%
20% -32.4% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,443.53 · official $2,443.53 (match) · 28 history records