Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:10:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27ce…f175 other 254 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$86 (-0%) realized −$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 244L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$16
14 days−$32
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$45
sports 23% −$20
politics 10% −$10
culture 6% −$7
economics 6% −$7
crypto 5% −$5
world 3% −$4
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 76 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 173 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 253 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 244
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)253 / 254
History coverage140d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 253 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 18 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $302 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $118 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $378 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $477 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $247 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $149 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $451 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $545 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $157 +$1 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $262 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 15 $614 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $136 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $374 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $262 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $381 −$2 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $245 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $119 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $184 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 13 $365 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $137 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $276 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $466 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $663 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $705 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $360 −$2 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $139 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $440 −$4 -1%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $221 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $198 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $275 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $303 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $406 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $127 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $585 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $591 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $295 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $431 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $677 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 06 $547 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $288 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $223 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $213 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $289 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $207 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $714 −$2 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $379 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $46 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $52 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $52 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 5h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 7h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $52 7h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $52 8h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 13h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 15h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $52 17h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $52 19h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 35h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 37h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 39h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 41h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $53 42h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $53 44h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 45h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 47h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 2d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $53 2d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $53 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 3d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $53 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.11 · official $46.11 (match) · 1484 history records