Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:07:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27c9…4abd world 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
Total PnL −$363 (-12%) realized −$430 · open −$20
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate40%37W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days−$145
14 days−$352
30 days−$334
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$140
sports 17% −$112
other 15% −$32
crypto 11% −$93
politics 3% −$72
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -8.3% -17.1% 40% 33% -24.3%
≤30d 23 -12.8% -21.1% 43% 35% -26.0%
≤90d 93 -4.7% -13.8% 40% 32% -22.9%
all 93 -4.7% -13.8% 40% 32% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 32% -22.9%
10% -22.0% 29% -30.2%
15% -29.5% 27% -37.0%
20% -36.4% 19% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20.848355354321885% → late 11.161591270175546% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$16 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$430
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses37 / 56
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)93 / 94
History coverage81d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Yes 11¢ $34 $14 −$20 (-59%)
Claude 4.7 released by May 31? No 66¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Nuggets Spurs 54¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Kings vs. Raptors Raptors 86¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Thunder Lakers 25¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Yes 38¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 64¢ $213 $0 −$213 (-100%)
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? No 37¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Up $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 24¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 38¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 65¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 17? No 40¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Pacers vs. Bulls Bulls 61¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $58 −$23 -40%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $64 −$6 -9%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $41 +$23 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $144 −$20 -14%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $68 −$63 -92%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $33 +$36 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $11 +$22 +197%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $47 −$36 -77%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $88 +$38 +43%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $23 −$15 -68%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $35 −$13 -36%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $206 −$96 -46%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $93 +$2 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $70 +$26 +37%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $64 −$27 -42%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $216 −$213 -99%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $374 +$33 +9%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $104 +$93 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 28 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 28 $10 +$5 +45%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 28 $89 −$76 -85%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 22 $80 +$12 +14%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 10 $49 +$31 +65%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $27 +$21 +78%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 06 $26 +$2 +6%
Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15? Apr 26 $20 +$6 +30%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 27? Apr 24 $20 +$20 +97%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 24 $137 −$62 -45%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $112 −$15 -14%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $20 +$15 +75%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 21 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 17 $6 −$6 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 17 $2 +$4 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 17 $3 −$1 -17%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? Apr 17 $2 −$2 -88%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in April? Apr 17 $4 −$4 -89%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Apr 17 $3 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 17 $39 −$37 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 17 $24 +$15 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 17 $11 +$13 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 17 $1 +$9 +928%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? Apr 17 $5 −$4 -75%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $98 −$49 -50%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $10 −$2 -20%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $49 +$8 +16%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $4 +$1 +38%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 90 seats? Apr 12 $4 +$2 +50%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 12 $5 +$2 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $35 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 27¢ $35 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 45¢ $58 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 45¢ $58 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $64 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $19 23h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $20 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $39 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $41 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $40 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $82 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $85 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $6 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $68 31h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $33 47h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 47h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $11 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 13¢ $11 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $47 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $126 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $88 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 45¢ $23 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes 13¢ $22 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $30 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes $5 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes $2 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 10¢ $16 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes 10¢ $16 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 59¢ $95 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.92 · official $13.92 (match) · 229 history records