Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:11:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27c9…ee41 other 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$172 (+9%) realized +$171 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate23%31W / 104L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days+$30
14 days+$300
30 days+$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$185
other 39% −$42
world 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -20.4% -28.0% 23% 23% -4.5%
≤30d 135 -9.6% -18.2% 23% 22% -3.4%
≤90d 135 -9.6% -18.2% 23% 22% -3.4%
all 135 -9.6% -18.2% 23% 22% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 22% -3.4%
10% -26.0% 21% -12.7%
15% -33.2% 21% -21.1%
20% -39.7% 20% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$7 · ×3.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$171
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses31 / 104
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions7
Markets (closed)135 / 142
History coverage18d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+42%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +234%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $48 +$66 +138%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -93%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +226%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $18 −$16 -85%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $4 +$7 +180%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $66 +$101 +153%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -84%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $86 −$86 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 $0 -16%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$15 +101%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 +$2 +114%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -14%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
England vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $2 +$7 +324%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $90 −$17 -19%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Argentina vs. Iceland: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $6 −$3 -48%
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Maghreb AS de Fès vs. AS FAR end in a draw? Jun 09 $100 +$13 +13%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 +$5 +103%
Will Sierra Leone win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Central African Republic win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kawkab AC vs. Raja Club Athletic end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $6 +$15 +253%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trinidad and Tobago win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Moldova win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will India win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 12h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 17h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 17h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 17h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 17h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 17h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 17h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 18h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $17 20h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 21h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 39¢ $111 21h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 23h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 0¢ $0 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 27h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 35h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 41h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $28 41h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 41h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $2 43h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 43h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 46h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 46h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 47h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 35¢ $4 2d
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.53 · official $18.53 (match) · 370 history records