Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:13:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27c6…0c1d crypto 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$26 (+5%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate78%83W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$38
14 days+$38
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$32
crypto 37% −$10
sports 6% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +10.6% +0.0% 75% 75% +1.3%
≤30d 4 +10.6% +0.0% 75% 75% +1.3%
≤90d 88 +0.0% -9.5% 77% 35% -3.4%
all 106 -0.4% -9.9% 78% 35% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 35% -4.5%
10% -18.5% 23% -13.7%
15% -26.4% 18% -22.0%
20% -33.6% 9% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses83 / 23
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)106 / 106
History coverage114d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 106 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $33 +$6 +17%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 +$32 +32%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $97 −$95 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$95 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 05 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 04 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 04 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 04 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 01 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 30 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 30 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 29 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 29 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 29 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 29 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 29 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 28 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 28 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 28 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 28 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 28 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 27 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 27 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 27 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 27 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 27 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 27 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 27 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 27 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 27 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 27 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 27 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Apr 27 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Apr 27 $1 +$1 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 26 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 26 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 26 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 26 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 26 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 26 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 26 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Apr 26 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 26 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 26 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 85¢ $33 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $97 10h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $8 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $2 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $3 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 244 history records