Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:40:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27c6…1540 crypto 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-7%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate39%12W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day37.5pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$17
world 4% $0
politics 1% $0
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -18.9% -26.6% 39% 16% -31.9%
≤30d 31 -18.9% -26.6% 39% 16% -31.9%
≤90d 31 -18.9% -26.6% 39% 16% -31.9%
all 31 -18.9% -26.6% 39% 16% -31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.6% 16% -31.9%
10% ← realistic here -33.6% 6% -38.4%
15% -40.0% 3% -44.4%
20% -45.9% 3% -49.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses12 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day37.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$4 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$3 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $3 $0 -3%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 16 $1 $0 -6%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records