Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:10:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
27 0x27c3…883e sports 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$85 (+20%) realized +$88 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate65%11W / 6L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$97
30 days+$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$83
other 30% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +55.1% +40.3% 100% 100% +40.8%
≤90d 17 +1.9% -7.8% 65% 59% +15.3%
all 17 +1.9% -7.8% 65% 59% +15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 59% +15.3%
10% -16.6% 59% +4.2%
15% -24.7% 53% -5.8%
20% -32.1% 35% -15.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$10 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.41 per $1 lost it wins $2.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized+$88
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses11 / 6
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage51d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $129 $126 −$3 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax Jun 10 $30 +$19 +63%
Ilkley: Billy Harris vs Clement Chidekh Jun 09 $33 +$27 +81%
Ilkley: Kyrian Jacquet vs Toby Samuel Jun 08 $101 +$48 +48%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $10 +$3 +29%
Brazzaville: Completed Match: Florent Bax vs Calvin Hemery May 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Aix en Provence: Yibing Wu vs Ethan Quinn May 01 $10 +$12 +119%
Mikal Bridges: Rebounds O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Abidjan 2: Aziz Dougaz vs Florent Bax Apr 30 $15 +$12 +79%
Mauthausen: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Matthew William Donald Apr 29 $11 −$11 -99%
Cagliari: Emilio Nava vs Damir Dzumhur Apr 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Cagliari: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Federico Cina Apr 29 $15 +$6 +41%
Andrea Pellegrino vs. Stefanos Sakellaridis: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Apr 29 $7 −$7 -99%
Abidjan 2: Robert Strombachs vs Florent Bax Apr 29 $10 +$7 +70%
Madrid Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Flavio Cobolli Apr 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Saint-Malo: Elsa Jacquemot vs Bianca Andreescu Apr 28 $4 $0 +3%
Aix en Provence: Daniel Jade vs Martin Landaluce Apr 28 $7 +$3 +47%
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud Apr 28 $8 +$4 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $131 1h
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax SELL Thomas Faurel 99¢ $49 7d
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax BUY Thomas Faurel 60¢ $30 8d
Ilkley: Billy Harris vs Clement Chidekh SELL Billy Harris 99¢ $60 8d
Ilkley: Billy Harris vs Clement Chidekh BUY Billy Harris 54¢ $3 9d
Ilkley: Billy Harris vs Clement Chidekh BUY Billy Harris 54¢ $30 9d
Ilkley: Kyrian Jacquet vs Toby Samuel SELL Toby Samuel 100¢ $149 9d
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler SELL Karolina Pliskova 100¢ $13 9d
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler BUY Karolina Pliskova 77¢ $10 9d
Ilkley: Kyrian Jacquet vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 67¢ $101 9d
Brazzaville: Completed Match: Florent Bax vs Calvin Hemery BUY No 61¢ $10 38d
Aix en Provence: Yibing Wu vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 45¢ $10 48d
Mikal Bridges: Rebounds O/U 2.5 BUY No 61¢ $10 48d
Abidjan 2: Aziz Dougaz vs Florent Bax SELL Florent Bax 99¢ $27 48d
Abidjan 2: Aziz Dougaz vs Florent Bax BUY Florent Bax 54¢ $15 49d
Mauthausen: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Matthew William Donald BUY Diego Dedura-Palomero 79¢ $11 49d
Cagliari: Emilio Nava vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Damir Dzumhur 38¢ $10 49d
Cagliari: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Federico Cina SELL Juan Manuel Cerundolo 100¢ $21 49d
Cagliari: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Federico Cina BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 70¢ $15 50d
Andrea Pellegrino vs. Stefanos Sakellaridis: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 61¢ $7 50d
Madrid Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Flavio Cobolli SELL Daniil Medvedev $0 50d
Saint-Malo: Elsa Jacquemot vs Bianca Andreescu SELL Elsa Jacquemot 27¢ $4 50d
Madrid Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Daniil Medvedev 52¢ $11 50d
Abidjan 2: Robert Strombachs vs Florent Bax BUY Florent Bax 58¢ $10 50d
Saint-Malo: Elsa Jacquemot vs Bianca Andreescu BUY Elsa Jacquemot 25¢ $4 50d
Aix en Provence: Daniel Jade vs Martin Landaluce SELL Martin Landaluce 100¢ $10 50d
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud SELL Casper Ruud 100¢ $12 50d
Aix en Provence: Daniel Jade vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 67¢ $7 50d
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud BUY Casper Ruud 65¢ $8 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.44 · official $126.44 (match) · 31 history records