Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:33:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
27 0x27c2…c3a5 crypto 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$19 (+24%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%12W / 4L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$27
14 days+$35
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$35
crypto 41% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +100.8% +81.6% 100% 100% +81.6%
≤30d 2 +71.1% +54.8% 100% 100% +59.4%
≤90d 16 +23.8% +12.0% 75% 75% +42.4%
all 16 +23.8% +12.0% 75% 75% +42.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.0% 75% +42.4%
10% +1.3% 50% +28.8%
15% -8.5% 44% +16.4%
20% -17.5% 31% +5.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +57% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +30% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×4.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.32 per $1 lost it wins $14.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses12 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage77d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $27 +$27 +101%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $19 +$8 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 16 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 16 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 16 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 15 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 04 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 03 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 03 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 03 $1 +$1 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 03 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 03 $1 +$2 +156%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $27 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $19 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $5 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $5 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $4 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $8 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $2 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $2 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $2 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $3 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records