Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:51:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
27 0x27bc…eb65 politics 140 markets active 2h ago coverage 569d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$211 (-5%) realized +$56 · open −$267
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate66%70W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$571now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 74% −$100
other 21% −$75
tech 2% −$9
sports 1% −$14
culture 1% −$30
crypto 0% +$3
economics 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +6.0% -4.1% 50% 50% -7.6%
≤30d 6 +45.2% +31.4% 83% 67% +4.1%
≤90d 32 +24.9% +13.0% 59% 38% -8.1%
all 106 +6.5% -3.7% 66% 43% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 43% -8.0%
10% -12.9% 26% -16.8%
15% -21.3% 19% -24.9%
20% -29.0% 14% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$12 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

569d coverage
Net worth$571
Realized+$56
Unrealized−$267
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses70 / 36
Open positions34
Markets (closed)106 / 140
History coverage569d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republican Party win the TX-03 House seat? Yes 87¢ 89¢ $113 $116 +$3 (+2%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Will the Republican Party win the FL-03 House seat? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+3%)
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Yes 77¢ 70¢ $46 $42 −$4 (-9%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 20¢ 6¢ $100 $33 −$67 (-67%)
Will the Republican Party win the OK-04 House seat? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $17 $17 +$1 (+3%)
Will the Republican Party win the FL-07 House seat? Yes 65¢ 71¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+10%)
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-03 House seat? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-12%)
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-09 House seat? Yes 46¢ 54¢ $10 $11 +$2 (+16%)
Will the Republican Party win the OH-09 House seat? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? No 96¢ 94¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes 29¢ 34¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+17%)
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes 21¢ 30¢ $6 $8 +$3 (+45%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-03 House seat? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-12%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+26%)
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-07 House seat? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes 28¢ 14¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-48%)
Will Federação Brasil da Esperança (FE Brasil) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes 5¢ 10¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+101%)
Will Federação União Progressista (UPB) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will Partido Missão (MISSÃO) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Republican Party win the NY-01 House seat? Jun 24 $31 −$2 -6%
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-01 House seat? Jun 24 $16 +$3 +18%
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 09 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? May 29 $40 +$4 +11%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $11 +$9 +82%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1 +$2 +159%
Will Braga win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nott'm Forest win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Freiburg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr May 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026? May 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Will "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week? May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Macron out by June 30, 2026? May 21 $59 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 21 $5 +$5 +100%
Will Jamie Davis Jr. be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana May 14 $17 +$15 +90%
Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $39 $0 +0%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? May 14 $70 +$6 +8%
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-14 House seat? May 11 $26 −$6 -25%
Will the Republican Party win the FL-14 House seat? May 11 $10 +$6 +65%
Will James Clark be the Republican Nominee for ME-02? May 08 $1 $0 -12%
Will Paul LePage be the Republican Nominee for ME-02? May 08 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Co May 08 $40 +$7 +17%
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 29-30, 2026? May 08 $3 +$27 +975%
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 25-28, 2026? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $26 +$1 +2%
Will Lindsay James be the Democratic Nominee for IA-02? Apr 24 $40 +$29 +73%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $10 +$4 +37%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? Apr 24 $6 +$11 +187%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Apr 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Apr 24 $42 +$2 +4%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Christian Estrosi win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? Mar 30 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Martine Vassal win the Marseille mayor election? Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bobby Pulido be the Democratic Nominee for TX-15? Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Starmer say "Europe" during the next Prime Minister's Questions? Mar 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Valorant: MIBR vs NRG - Map 3 Winner Mar 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Democrats 66 (D66) win the most seats in Utrecht’s 2026 municipal Mar 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Daniel Crenshaw be the Republican Nominee for TX-02? Mar 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Anthony Gordon have the most goal contributions in the 2025-26 Ch Mar 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Mar 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Starmer say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during the next Pri Mar 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Mar 22 $80 +$24 +30%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Mar 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? Mar 21 $289 +$63 +22%
Will Powell say "Dollar" 2+ times during March press conference? Mar 18 $10 +$8 +80%
Will Franck Allisio win the Marseille mayor election? Mar 15 $26 +$22 +83%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentar Mar 09 $42 +$27 +64%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 09 $11 +$10 +93%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 06 $2 +$3 +186%
Will Ada Cuellar be the Democratic Nominee for TX-15? Mar 04 $24 −$24 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Republican Party win the NY-01 House seat? SELL Yes 59¢ $29 2h
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-01 House seat? SELL Yes 40¢ $20 2h
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber BUY Yes 70¢ $22 14h
Will Federação Brasil da Esperança (FE Brasil) hold the most seats in BUY Yes 9¢ $3 14h
Will Federação União Progressista (UPB) hold the most seats in the Bra BUY Yes 7¢ $2 14h
Will Partido Missão (MISSÃO) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Cham BUY Yes 9¢ $3 14h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 14d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $7 14d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 14d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 14d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $48 16d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 75¢ $16 21d
Will the Republican Party win the OH-09 House seat? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 26d
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-09 House seat? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 26d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? SELL Yes 73¢ $39 26d
Will the Republican Party win the FL-07 House seat? BUY Yes 65¢ $13 27d
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-07 House seat? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 27d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 29d
Macron out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 33d
Will "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 39d
Macron out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 40d
Will Jamie Davis Jr. be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana SELL Yes 86¢ $21 41d
Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 100¢ $39 41d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 41d
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-14 House seat? SELL Yes 53¢ $7 44d
Will the Republican Party win the FL-14 House seat? SELL Yes 44¢ $16 44d
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-14 House seat? SELL Yes 53¢ $13 44d
Will James Clark be the Republican Nominee for ME-02? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 47d
Will James Clark be the Republican Nominee for ME-02? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 47d
Will Paul LePage be the Republican Nominee for ME-02? SELL Yes 92¢ $47 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $571.05 · official $571.06 (match) · 384 history records