Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:25:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

27 0x27b9…ca96 crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized +$25 · open −$40

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip

Net edge-28%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate50%9W / 9L

Drawdown60%max

Avg bet$78per market

Trades / day45.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$160now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)-15.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	-6.4%	-15.3%	50%	44%	+12.1%
≤30d	18	-6.4%	-15.3%	50%	44%	+12.1%
≤90d	18	-6.4%	-15.3%	50%	44%	+12.1%
all	18	-6.4%	-15.3%	50%	44%	+12.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover45.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-15.3%	44%	+12.1%
10% ← realistic here	-23.4%	39%	+1.3%
15%	-30.8%	33%	-8.5%
20%	-37.6%	28%	-17.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 34% · top 2 59% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

11% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -6% · $-wt +24% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +20% → late -32% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$94 vs −$58 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$160

Realized+$25

Unrealized−$40

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses9 / 9

Open positions2

Markets (closed)18 / 20

History coverage1d

Avg bet$78

Trades / day45.0

Drawdown60%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	50¢	50¢	$100	$101	+$1 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	47¢	28¢	$100	$59	−$41 (-41%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Jun 18	$52	−$50	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Jun 18	$52	−$52	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Jun 18	$52	−$52	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Jun 18	$53	−$53	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Jun 18	$79	−$79	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Jun 18	$105	−$105	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Jun 18	$79	−$79	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Jun 18	$105	+$291	+277%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Jun 18	$156	+$206	+132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Jun 18	$102	+$48	+47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Jun 18	$57	+$40	+70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Jun 18	$101	+$20	+20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Jun 18	$155	+$153	+99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Jun 18	$52	−$51	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Jun 18	$51	+$15	+29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Jun 18	$5	$0	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Jun 18	$5	−$4	-82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Jun 18	$83	+$73	+88%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$52	0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$52	0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	BUY Down	47¢	$52	3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	BUY Down	47¢	$52	3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	BUY Up	37¢	$52	33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$396	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	BUY Down	24¢	$53	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	BUY Down	26¢	$53	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$362	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	BUY Down	41¢	$52	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	BUY Down	41¢	$52	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	BUY Down	41¢	$52	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	BUY Down	10¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	BUY Down	10¢	$53	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	BUY Up	67¢	$51	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	BUY Up	66¢	$51	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	BUY Up	30¢	$52	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	BUY Down	28¢	$53	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	BUY Up	37¢	$52	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	BUY Down	57¢	$52	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	BUY Down	57¢	$5	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	BUY Down	84¢	$51	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	BUY Down	81¢	$51	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	SELL Down	9¢	$1	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	BUY Down	30¢	$26	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	BUY Down	30¢	$26	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	BUY Down	45¢	$52	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	BUY Down	45¢	$52	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	BUY Down	58¢	$51	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	BUY Up	26¢	$5	6h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.51 · official $170.15 · 61 history records