Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:23:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

27
0x27b8…165d
world · 95 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$18 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$91
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses36 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions4
Markets (closed)91 / 95
History coverage470d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 4 History 91 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$9
14 days−$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $90 $90 −$0 (-0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 66¢ 84¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+28%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 84¢ 82¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 31¢ 26¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $146 −$8 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 09 $95 −$2 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $98 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $107 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 06 $63 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $493 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $103 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $106 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $12 $0 +1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $97 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $359 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $297 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $97 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $124 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $203 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $113 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $210 +$2 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $96 +$5 +5%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $96 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 22 $95 +$1 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $95 +$2 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 20 $102 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 20 $96 +$7 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 18 $96 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 17 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $95 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $161 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $105 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 16 $111 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $680 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $32 −$2 -7%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $54 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $1,262 +$1 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $1,003 −$1 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $938 +$4 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $233 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $40 −$8 -21%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $955 −$9 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $89 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 31 $12 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? Aug 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 12 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 55% −$4
sports 20% −$7
economics 13% +$1
other 7% +$2
politics 2% +$1
finance 1% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $90 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $19 17h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $16 17h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $38 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $92 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $13 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $81 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 66¢ $80 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 66¢ $24 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 69¢ $108 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $99 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $98 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $98 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $14 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $84 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 46¢ $4 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 46¢ $59 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $2 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $61 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $98 6d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $98 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $107 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $106 7d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 7d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $97 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.1% -10.5% 33% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 31 +0.4% -9.2% 55% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 43 -0.4% -9.9% 44% 0% -9.6%
all 91 +0.0% -9.5% 40% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.34 · official $90.10 · 315 history records