Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:24:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x27b8…8d54 crypto 184 markets active 0h ago coverage 537d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$307 (-2%) realized −$306 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%66W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$32
14 days+$14
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$818
sports 27% +$227
other 4% +$245
tech 0% −$36
weather 0% −$11
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +87.5% +69.6% 100% 100% +35.7%
≤30d 17 -61.0% -64.7% 18% 18% -11.8%
≤90d 71 -2.0% -11.4% 28% 28% -28.7%
all 183 -1.7% -11.1% 36% 35% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 35% -12.4%
10% -19.6% 30% -20.7%
15% -27.4% 25% -28.4%
20% -34.5% 20% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$36 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

537d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$306
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses66 / 117
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)183 / 184
History coverage537d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 76 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $43 +$5 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $60 +$27 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$5 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 17? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 01 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 01 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 01 $7 −$2 -27%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 23 $3 −$3 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 21 $155 −$148 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 21 $150 −$144 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 21 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 21 $100 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 21 $100 −$96 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 21 $51 −$8 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 21 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 21 $29 +$25 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 21 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 21 $13 −$12 -94%
Will FC Midtjylland vs. Aarhus GF end in a draw? Apr 20 $23 +$30 +131%
Will FC Midtjylland win on 2026-04-20? Apr 20 $3 +$34 +1118%
Will Aarhus GF win on 2026-04-20? Apr 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Quentin Halys vs Jaime Faria Apr 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 19 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $10 −$6 -64%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Juventus FC vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw? Apr 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw? Apr 19 $3 +$19 +645%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $2 +$16 +824%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $14 +$11 +81%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $204 +$202 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 19 $100 −$95 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 19 $51 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 19 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 19 $50 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 16m
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 23m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 30m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 41¢ $46 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $39 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 39¢ $78 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $32 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $9 12d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 13d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 13d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 14d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 14d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 14d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $3 17d
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 17d
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $10 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $3 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $13 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $6 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.17 · official $4.17 (match) · 385 history records